As of April 17, 2025, USD/JPY has rebounded to around 142.51 following a steep decline. Although the pair posted a strong bullish candlestick earlier in the Tokyo session, it remains below the 200-period moving average (200MA)—a key signal that the overall trend is still bearish. This rebound could be a short-lived retracement unless confirmed by additional momentum and a break above critical resistance levels.
Chart Source: cTrader
A strong bullish engulfing candle appeared early in the Tokyo session, driven by short-covering. However, the price stalled around the 142.60–142.80 zone, a known resistance area. The formation of upper wicks and lack of follow-through indicates sellers are still active.
If the price fails to close decisively above this zone, the rebound is likely to be temporary. A sustained break above 143.00 would be required to shift the structure into a more constructive bullish outlook.
The Average Directional Index (ADX) surged into the high 30s, indicating a strengthening trend. However, ADX reflects trend strength, not direction. This move could simply represent the force of the rebound rather than the start of a bullish trend.For a meaningful trend reversal to be in play, ADX needs to break above 40, ideally while the price also crosses above the 200MA.
The MACD line has crossed above the signal line, and the histogram has flipped into positive territory—indicating short-term bullish momentum. However, MACD remains below the zero line, so the move lacks confirmation as a full trend reversal.
The current movement is best viewed as a pullback within a broader downtrend. That said, both MACD and ADX hint at a potential shift toward bullish momentum.
Bullish Scenario (Rebound Play)
Entry: Upon clear breakout above 142.50
Target: 143.00–143.40
Stop-loss: Below 142.10
Bearish Scenario (Breakout Play)
Entry: Below 142.00
Target: 141.30
Stop-loss: Above 142.80
Technical indicators suggest a possible rebound, but not yet a confirmed trend reversal. The 200MA remains a major resistance level and a potential turning point. Traders should maintain strict risk management and be ready to adapt to the next directional move.
This content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please ensure you conduct your own research and make trading decisions at your own discretion.
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This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. The analyses and strategies mentioned are based on past data and current market conditions, and may be subject to change in the future. When making investment decisions, always conduct your own research and consult a professional if necessary.
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