[USD/JPY] 1-Hour Chart Analysis｜April 16, 2025: Bearish Trend Persists, Can 142.70 Hold?
Overview
USD/JPY continues to trade steadily below the 200MA, maintaining a medium- to long-term downtrend. The price is currently testing the 142.70 support level, and whether this level will hold or break is a key focus.
Chart Source (cTrader)
[ADX]
The ADX (green line) has recently dropped from around 50 to the low 40s.
While trend strength is weakening slightly, it remains above 30, indicating a continued directional trend.
There may be temporary consolidation, but the bearish flow remains intact.
[MACD]
MACD continues to trade below the signal line, maintaining a bearish crossover.
The histogram is widening in negative territory, showing continued bearish momentum.
No sign of reversal is observed yet, and the trend remains downward.
[200MA – Moving Average]
The 200MA (blue line) is gently sloping downward, forming a clear descending trend line.
All candlesticks are trading below the 200MA, indicating that sell-on-rally strategies are currently effective.
A strong buying catalyst would be required to break above this line.
[Candlestick Structure]
For the past two days, a sideways range with a ceiling near 143.30 has formed.
Now, the price has broken below that range, approaching 142.70 under a series of bearish candles.
Although volatility is declining slightly, strong selling pressure remains in place.
[Support & Resistance]
Current key support: 142.70
Next support levels: 142.30 to 142.00
Resistance levels: Around 143.00 and the prior high at 143.30
[Trading Strategies]
Bearish Strategy (Primary Scenario)
Consider short entry after a confirmed break below 142.70 and minor pullback.
Profit targets: 142.30, followed by 142.00
Stop loss: Around 143.10 (recent high)
Bullish Strategy (Alternative Scenario)
If the price breaks above 143.30 with increasing volume, consider a limited long position.
A clear break above the 200MA is essential for sustained bullishness.
Caution is required, as reversal attempts carry higher risk.
Conclusion
Overall, USD/JPY remains in a clearly bearish structure.
The 142.70 level is a pivotal zone that may determine short-term direction.
Technical indicators, price action, and the downward slope of the moving average all support continued bearish sentiment.
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Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading decisions should be made at your own discretion and responsibility.
This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. The analyses and strategies mentioned are based on past data and current market conditions, and may be subject to change in the future. When making investment decisions, always conduct your own research and consult a professional if necessary.
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