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XAUUSD Technical Analysis 【June 30】: Gold Holds Below 3280

XAUUSD Technical Analysis 【June 30】: Gold Holds Below 3280

XAUUSD technical analysis comes into sharp focus today as gold stabilizes below the 3280 mark, following a swift and decisive breakdown from prior support. In this session, we dissect the latest technical analysis signals for gold, using only RSI, moving average, and MACD.

XAUUSD Market Structure: The Current Battlefield

Gold’s price action has shifted dramatically, with the breakdown below 3320 giving way to a retest and stabilization near 3278.44. The sharp drop erased previous support and has ushered in a new phase of uncertainty, as sellers continue to dominate the landscape. The market is searching for direction, with the 50-period (yellow) and 200-period (red) moving averages both sloping downward, reinforcing the bearish tone.

Weaving the Narrative: The Message from RSI, MA, and MACD

  • Moving Averages (MA): Both the 50-period and 200-period moving averages are aligned in a bearish configuration, with price firmly below both lines. The gap between MAs has widened after the breakdown, underscoring ongoing downside momentum.
  • MACD: MACD histogram remains below zero, and while the MACD and signal lines are converging, there is no confirmed bullish crossover yet. This suggests that downward momentum is still present, though selling pressure may be losing some intensity as the histogram narrows.
  • RSI: RSI hovers around 33, a level that indicates oversold conditions but not yet an outright reversal. The indicator reflects bearish exhaustion but does not provide a clear buy signal—momentum remains in favor of the bears until RSI climbs back above the 40-50 region.

Primary Scenario: Bearish Extension

Entry: Sell on rallies toward 3295–3300 if price remains below the 50-period MA.
Stop-Loss: Above 3320 (recent breakdown zone and MA resistance).
Target: 3240–3250, with a possible extension to 3210 if bearish momentum accelerates.
The primary scenario favors trend continuation, as all three indicators confirm ongoing weakness. Until price recovers above the 50-period moving average and RSI exits oversold, sellers hold the advantage.

Alternative Scenario: Oversold Rebound

If the RSI rises sharply above 40 and the MACD prints a bullish crossover with increasing histogram bars, a corrective rally could develop. In this case, a move above 3320 would be needed to trigger a bullish reversal, with upside targets at 3350 and the 200-period MA. However, this scenario remains secondary unless confirmed by clear signals from the allowed indicators.

In summary, XAUUSD technical analysis highlights a market stabilizing below 3280 after a breakdown, with bearish conditions dominating as confirmed by RSI, moving averages, and MACD. Only a clear reversal in these tools would challenge the prevailing downtrend.

Stay tuned for the latest updates right here on FIXIO Blog.

※Disclaimer: This content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please be sure to conduct your own research.

XAUUSD technical analysis for June 30, 2025. Gold holds below 3280 after a breakdown. See RSI, MA, MACD signals and key trading scenarios.

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David Wilson
Author

David Wilson has extensive experience in currency and commodities trading. He began his career in metal sales and trading at Societe Generale in London. He went on to work as a senior analyst within the FX industry where he developed and refined his own trading and risk management strategies. Having a solid understanding of market dynamics, he founded his own research and asset management services and works with FIXIO to provide timely market commentary on the global financial markets.

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