As of June 30, 2025, BTC/USD (Bitcoin/US Dollar) surged from the $107,000 range to around $108,800 on the 1-hour chart, followed by a short-term consolidation phase. Notably, after strong buying pressure pushed the price upward, momentum has slightly weakened, with the price now approaching a key support line again. This article takes a multifaceted look at future price movements using multiple indicators including moving averages, MACD, ADX, and volume, through the lens of technical analysis.
One clear observation on the chart is that the short-term moving average (blue line, estimated 20EMA) is trading above the long-term moving average (red line, estimated 200SMA). This setup, commonly known as a “golden cross,” is considered a strong bullish signal indicating the emergence or continuation of an uptrend (see moving average). With both moving averages trending upward, medium-term buying pressure remains dominant.
The MACD indicator recently showed a positive divergence between the MACD line and the signal line, but that gap is now narrowing. The histogram has passed its peak and is decreasing, which suggests weakening short-term momentum. Changes in the MACD are crucial for identifying potential reversals or pullback opportunities. Going forward, attention will be on whether the MACD line crosses below the signal line.
The ADX (Average Directional Index) is holding around 60, a very high level that confirms the presence of a strong uptrend. Generally, an ADX above 25 indicates a trending market. The current level significantly exceeds that threshold, highlighting the reliability of this trend indicator. Even with short-term pullbacks or corrections, the overall upward trend is likely to continue.
During the early hours of June 30, the breakout was accompanied by a noticeable increase in volume, indicating that the price surge was not merely speculative but supported by real demand. In contrast, recent declines were accompanied by decreasing volume, which can be interpreted as temporary profit-taking by bullish traders. Observing the relationship between price and volume allows for a more accurate assessment of trend sustainability.
| Level | Price | Meaning / Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Short-Term Resistance | $108,900 | Recent high in early morning on June 30; multiple upper wicks observed |
| Next Target | $110,000 | Psychological level, often viewed as a round number |
| Short-Term Support | $107,965 | Potential pullback zone near 20EMA |
| Mid-Term Support | $107,000 | High volume zone overlapping with previous low |
BTC/USD is currently transitioning from testing short-term resistance at $108,900 to re-confirming support near $107,965. While momentum is showing signs of temporary slowdown, indicators like ADX and moving averages still suggest the trend may continue, making cautious dip-buying strategies potentially effective.
Particularly, whether MACD forms a bearish crossover will likely be a key signal. Should the price clearly break below $107,000, the risk of a short-term trend reversal must be considered.
Overall, the 1-hour chart of BTC/USD is at a critical juncture—either continuing its uptrend or entering a short-term reversal. While momentum has slightly slowed, trend indicators and volume still support a bullish bias.
Focus now turns to whether support holds within the $107,000–$107,965 range and if BTC can break through the $108,900 level. Strategic approaches may include entering after a confirmed bounce off support or following a breakout above recent highs.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please make all trading decisions based on your own research and judgment.
This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. The analyses and strategies mentioned are based on past data and current market conditions, and may be subject to change in the future. When making investment decisions, always conduct your own research and consult a professional if necessary.
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