As of July 25, 2025, XAU/USD (Gold/US Dollar) has entered a consolidation phase around the $3360 level after experiencing a short-term downtrend. The sharp decline seen from July 22 to 24 was partly due to a rebound in the US dollar and changing expectations around interest rates, causing the price to fall from above $3440.
Currently, the price is hovering around the 200SMA (200-period simple moving average), acting as support within a sideways range. In such conditions, the importance of technical analysis increases, requiring traders to consider indicators like MACD, ADX, moving averages, and volume together.
The short-term 50MA (blue line) is trending downward, and the 200SMA (red line) is also slightly declining. This structure resembles a death cross. Even though the price occasionally moves above the 200SMA, those gains are short-lived, and pullback selling remains dominant.
The gap between the MACD line and signal line is narrowing, and the histogram is approaching the zero line. This suggests that the previously strong momentum has weakened, signaling a shift toward a correction phase. A golden cross in the MACD may indicate the beginning of a short-term rally.
The ADX is hovering around 30, indicating the absence of a strong trend. This aligns with a range-bound market, where contrarian strategies may prove more effective than trend-following.
Volume spiked during the drop on the 24th but has since calmed. This suggests that traders are not aggressively building new positions. For a breakout to be reliable, it must be supported by renewed volume growth.
| Level | Price | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| First Resistance | $3380 | 50MA, recent pullback high |
| Second Resistance | $3405 | High before July 24 drop |
| Immediate Support | $3364 | Multiple short-term rebounds |
| Next Support | $3340 | Previous neckline, volume cluster |
Here are potential strategies depending on technical developments:
XAU/USD appears to be in a transition zone — the downward momentum has paused, but a reversal has yet to form. Trade decisions should be based on technical signals, but also take into account volume, volatility, and market psychology.
Watch for alignment between indicators such as ADX and MACD, moving average crossovers, and volume spikes. When these converge, the likelihood of a valid trend shift increases. Remain patient and ready to act decisively.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please make all trading decisions based on your own judgment.
This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. The analyses and strategies mentioned are based on past data and current market conditions, and may be subject to change in the future. When making investment decisions, always conduct your own research and consult a professional if necessary.
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