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BTC/USD Technical Analysis: Testing $104,000 Support – Is the Downtrend Continuing?

BTC/USD Technical Analysis: Testing $104,000 Support – Is the Downtrend Continuing?

BTC/USD Technical Analysis (1-Hour Chart): Testing $104,000 Support, Bearish Trend May Continue

Market Background and Current Price Movement

As of June 5, 2025, BTC/USD (Bitcoin/US Dollar) is hovering around $104,000, continuing its short-term downtrend. Since the all-time high of $111,970 recorded on May 22, a correction has been underway, and the current price remains near $105,000. Bitcoin price movements are heavily influenced by technical indicators and market sentiment.

Moving Average Analysis: Strengthening Short-Term Bearish Bias

On the 1-hour chart, the short-term moving average (50EMA) is below the long-term moving average (200SMA), and the price is also trading below both lines. This setup suggests a typical bearish trend, indicating the possibility of continued downward pressure. For more information, see Moving Average.

MACD Behavior: Continuation of Bearish Momentum

The MACD line is below the signal line, and the histogram is in negative territory. This indicates dominant selling pressure and suggests a risk of continued price decline. This is not mere noise but is based on a clear decrease in momentum.

ADX: Indicator of Trend Strength

The ADX is hovering around 27, indicating a clearly defined trend. This suggests that the current downtrend has consistent momentum and is not transitioning into a range-bound market but continuing its directional decline.

Volume and Price Relationship: Rising Selling Pressure

As the price approaches the $104,000 support line, a slight increase in volume is observed. This may indicate additional selling pressure accompanying a potential breakdown, lending credibility to the continuation of the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels

Level Price Meaning / Rationale
Short-Term Resistance $105,600 Overlaps with 50EMA and recent swing high
Next Target $107,500 Key resistance zone; breakout may signal trend reversal
Short-Term Support $104,000 Recent low support line currently being tested
Mid-Term Support $103,000 Zone with multiple historical rebounds

Summary: Key Points for Traders

BTC/USD is currently testing the critical support zone at $104,000. A confirmed breakdown could lead to further declines. Technical indicators such as MACD and ADX also suggest bearish conditions, supporting a short-term sell-on-rally strategy.

However, if the $104,000 level holds, a temporary rebound could occur, with $105,600 becoming the next area of focus. Continuously monitoring trend direction and momentum is essential for adjusting trading strategies flexibly.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.

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Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making any trading decisions.

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David Wilson
Author

David Wilson has extensive experience in currency and commodities trading. He began his career in metal sales and trading at Societe Generale in London. He went on to work as a senior analyst within the FX industry where he developed and refined his own trading and risk management strategies. Having a solid understanding of market dynamics, he founded his own research and asset management services and works with FIXIO to provide timely market commentary on the global financial markets.

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