As of June 25, 2025, BTC/USD (Bitcoin/US Dollar) is at a critical point on the 1-hour chart, testing the upper range of $105,500–$106,000. The rebound trend from the start of the week continues, and although the pace has leveled off, market conditions remain firm.
This article provides insights from the perspective of technical analysis, focusing on moving averages, MACD, ADX, and volume trends to outline potential future price scenarios.
The current price is steadily above both the short-term moving average (likely 20EMA) and the long-term moving average (200SMA). Technically, this indicates a favorable trend-following condition and suggests strong buying pressure on dips.
Notably, the 200SMA (blue line) is acting as a support, implying that there is no significant downward pressure mid-term. Signs of the 20EMA crossing above the 200SMA suggest a potential “golden cross,” which may amplify bullish momentum.
The ADX (Average Directional Index) is holding around 30, indicating a clear trend in the market. In terms of momentum, the state is neither overly strong nor weak—suggesting a healthy, stair-step rise.
If the ADX rises above 40, this could signal the start of a strong trend, attracting trend-following traders.
The MACD line (yellow) is nearing the signal line (red), on the verge of a crossover. The recent histogram bars are tilting upward, hinting at a potential bullish reversal.
If a crossover occurs, a bullish phase may take hold, making a break above $106,000 more likely. Since MACD tends to confirm trends with a lag, combining it with other indicators is recommended.
Volume hasn’t spiked dramatically but remains stable, indicating a resilient price structure. Of particular note is the gradual increase in volume during the upward move, suggesting cautious accumulation by market participants.
If a breakout is accompanied by a surge in volume, it will enhance credibility and attract follow-through buying.
| Level | Price | Significance / Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Short-term Resistance | $106,500 | Zone of recent upper wicks; expected selling pressure |
| Mid-term Target | $107,200 | Previous high; key technical level |
| Short-term Support | $105,400 | Overlap of 20EMA and volume zone |
| Mid-term Support | $104,500 | 200SMA area; strong rebound potential |
BTC/USD is currently in a “breakout watch” phase, requiring a cautious stance to determine clear direction. Overall chart structure favors bulls, and a decisive break above $106,500 could spark further buying momentum.
Conversely, a drop below $105,400 could trigger a pullback phase, making stop-loss settings essential. The following strategies may be considered:
BTC/USD is maintaining a steady rise without any sharp declines, and is now in a phase of timing the next breakout. Signals from momentum, technical indicators, and volume suggest there is still room for further upside.
That said, short-term volatility and fundamental catalysts (FOMC, ETF news, etc.) could impact the market, so monitoring headlines alongside technicals is essential.
Be ready to act flexibly and swiftly when a clear breakout signal emerges.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please make final investment decisions at your own discretion.
This analysis is based solely on technical indicators and does not account for fundamental news. Please use it for informational purposes only and conduct your own research before trading.
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