BTC/USD Technical Analysis (1-Hour Chart): Short-Term Rebound in Progress—Trend Reversal or Continued Uptrend?

Market Background and Current Price Movement

As of July 2, 2025, BTC/USD (Bitcoin/US Dollar) has entered a short-term rebound phase, rising to around $106,747 on the 1-hour chart. Although there was a correction overnight, a bottoming rebound is now underway. While this is a short-term timeframe, technical analysis provides key insights into the early stages of a potential trend reversal.

The current chart structure resembles a typical "base formation" rebound pattern, offering valuable clues for assessing upside potential and sell-on-rally points.

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Moving Average Analysis: A “Rebound Phase” in a Downtrend?

Multiple moving averages are displayed on the chart. Of particular interest are the positions and slopes of the 50SMA (blue) and 200SMA (red). Both are trending downward, with the current price touching the 200SMA, indicating a possible retracement move.

A rebound within a downtrend often marks a potential sell-on-rally point, requiring caution among traders. For basic knowledge about moving averages, refer to this article.

MACD Analysis: Early Signs of Bullish Momentum?

The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator shows a “golden cross,” where the MACD line (yellow) crosses above the signal line (red) from below. This is a bullish signal indicating increased short-term buying pressure, supporting the potential continuation of the rebound.

Additionally, the MACD histogram has moved into positive territory, suggesting sustainability of the reversal. For more information about MACD, see this page.

ADX and DI Analysis: Indications of Trend Emergence

The ADX (Average Directional Index) has surpassed 40, signaling a clear trend in the market. Moreover, DI+ (green) is above DI– (red), suggesting an ongoing “uptrend.”

With ADX values above 25, a trend is generally considered to be forming, and values above 40 indicate a relatively strong trend. ADX, as part of the momentum indicator family, allows traders to objectively assess market direction.

Volume Analysis: Trading Volume Supporting the Breakout

One noteworthy point is the gradual increase in volume as the price begins to rebound. This "rising with volume" behavior signals genuine buying activity from market participants, adding credibility to the current rebound phase.

If volume increases further when breaking through the $107,000 level, the breakout is likely to be seen as more robust and reliable.

Support and Resistance Levels

Key Watch Point: Buy-the-Dip or Sell-the-Rally?

BTC/USD is currently in a short-term upward move driven by momentum, but the longer-term trend remains bearish. Therefore, the price action around the $107,000 level is critical. A clear breakout above this level would mark the start of a trend reversal.

Conversely, if the price is capped near the 200SMA, a sell-on-rally strategy may be more appropriate. Short-term traders should carefully assess buy-the-dip and sell-the-rally opportunities using a combination of MACD, ADX, and candlestick patterns.

Conclusion: Strategies and Risks Traders Should Watch

BTC/USD shows a clear short-term rebound on the 1-hour chart, supported by strengthening momentum. However, given the downward slope of the moving averages, the overall trend remains bearish, and traders should avoid excessive optimism.

For traders, the key inflection point is whether the price can decisively break above $107,000. Meanwhile, keep an eye on the support zone around $106,000 and remain flexible in strategy to adapt to possible reversals.

Disclaimer: This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation of any financial instrument or investment strategy. All investment decisions are at the reader’s own discretion and risk.

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