BTC/USD Technical Analysis (1-Hour Chart): Battle at $106,800 Signals Ongoing Downtrend

Market Context and Current Price Action

As of July 1, 2025, BTC/USD (Bitcoin/US Dollar) continues to show short-term bearish sentiment, approaching the key support level around $106,800. Recent hourly candlesticks are dominated by consecutive bearish candles, indicating waning buying pressure.

This article explores the situation from a technical analysis perspective using multiple tools such as moving averages, ADX (Average Directional Index), momentum indicators, and volume trends to assess strategy moving forward.

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Moving Average Analysis: Price Maintains Bearish Bias

Both the 20EMA (blue) and 200SMA (red) on the chart are trending downward, with the price positioned below both lines. This is a strong indication of short- and medium-term bearish sentiment in the market.

Moving averages are representative trend indicators used to objectively observe market direction and momentum. In the current “death cross” setup—where the short-term line is below the long-term line—downward pressure is likely to persist.

ADX Analysis: Trend Strength Still Limited

Looking at the ADX (lower indicator), it remains slightly below 25, suggesting only moderate trend strength. However, the -DI (red) is clearly above the +DI (green), indicating a dominant bearish direction.

The ADX is used to measure trend strength rather than direction. When values are low as they are now, caution is warranted for potential consolidations or low volatility periods.

Momentum Analysis: Selling Pressure Gradually Dominates

Momentum indicators on the lower part of the chart show a decline ahead of price, clearly signaling weakening market momentum. Especially notable is the price’s gradual decline with weak rebound attempts, a clear sign of prevailing selling pressure.

For more details, refer to the basics and interpretation of momentum indicators. In this kind of bearish momentum environment, “sell-the-rally” strategies tend to be effective, and caution is warranted.

Volume and Price Correlation: Quiet Downtrend Continues

Current trading volume is declining, showing a lack of strong market activity. This suggests a buildup of energy before a potential breakout. If the $106,500 support zone is broken, it could trigger rapid selling momentum.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Strategic Outlook: Key Focus Going Forward

Technically, BTC/USD currently shows a strong bearish bias. Based on the shape of the moving averages, momentum, and ADX, a continuation of selling pressure on rallies is expected.

The key level to watch going forward is $106,500. A break below this could lead to a quick drop toward the next target at $106,200. On the other hand, a clear breakout above $107,300 may signal a short-term recovery, though its sustainability remains uncertain.

Conclusion: Bearish Bias Dominates, Risk Management Is Crucial

The 1-hour BTC/USD chart reveals a structure of steadily increasing selling pressure. Multiple technical indicators are pointing downward, particularly the combination of momentum and ADX, which suggests continued short-term bearish movement.

In the current phase, caution is needed as “quiet pressure” builds before a potential breakout. A strategy with clearly defined entry points and stop-loss levels is essential, keeping in mind both the potential for a breakdown and opportunities to sell on rallies.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Always conduct your own research and decision-making.

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