As of August 7, 2025, BTC/USD (Bitcoin/US Dollar) is trading around $114,800 on the 1-hour chart. A strong rebound from the $113,000 range recently pushed the price to around $115,300. However, the price is currently losing momentum near the top, raising questions about whether the bullish trend will continue or if the market is entering a correction phase.
This article analyzes BTC/USD using technical analysis methods, examining key indicators such as moving averages, MACD, ADX, and volume to identify short-term trends and trading opportunities.
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The price is currently fluctuating around the short-term 20EMA (blue), which is acting as a support level. In contrast, the long-term 200SMA (red) remains above the price, providing significant resistance. This forms a classic confluence zone of moving averages, highlighting a critical technical pivot point.
A potential golden cross, where the 20EMA crosses above the 200SMA, is approaching but has not yet been confirmed. Sustained bullish momentum and increased volume are needed to solidify this signal. If confirmed, it could act as a strong buy indicator in the short term. Understanding how moving averages work is essential for both beginner and intermediate traders.
The MACD line recently crossed above the signal line, initially suggesting a bullish setup. However, it's now showing signs of a potential bearish crossover. The histogram is also narrowing, indicating weakening buying momentum.
This could signal a temporary top and possible entry into a sideways or corrective phase. As a momentum indicator, the MACD remains a valuable tool for identifying early trend reversals.
The ADX is hovering between 20 and 25, which reflects a market without strong directional bias. This suggests that BTC/USD is currently caught in a range, with buyers and sellers in balance. A reading above 25 would indicate the emergence of a stronger trend, making future ADX movement worth monitoring.
Although there was a slight increase in volume during the recent price rise, volume has not significantly supported the breakout above $115,000. This casts doubt on the reliability of the breakout, suggesting it may be a false signal.
In technical analysis, breakouts accompanied by volume are considered more trustworthy. For the current uptrend to continue, stronger volume confirmation is necessary.
| Level | Price | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Short-Term Resistance | $115,300 | Matches with the 200SMA and recent peak |
| Next Target | $116,000 | Psychological level and previous swing high |
| Short-Term Support | $114,300 | Intersection with 20EMA, recent pullback level |
| Mid-Term Support | $113,500 | Volume concentration zone, possible base formation |
Unless BTC/USD breaks clearly above $115,300, it may be wise to hold off on aggressive buying. Instead, a pullback-based long entry strategy may offer a better risk-reward ratio. The short-term support at $114,300 coincides with the 20EMA and presents a potential entry point for scalpers or intraday traders.
If the price falls below $113,500, downside risks increase, and traders should consider adjusting their stop-loss levels accordingly. On the other hand, a breakout above $115,300 with strong volume could open the door for a move toward $116,000 or higher, justifying a momentum-based long strategy.
BTC/USD is showing signs of a short-term uptrend but remains technically at a critical juncture. A confirmed golden cross between the 20EMA and 200SMA could signal a more decisive bullish breakout, but current conditions suggest indecisiveness.
Monitoring MACD crossovers, ADX values, and volume trends is essential for assessing the market's next move. For short-term traders, alternating between pullback entries at support and breakout entries above resistance may provide the most effective strategy in this environment.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research and manage risk appropriately.
This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. The analyses and strategies mentioned are based on past data and current market conditions, and may be subject to change in the future. When making investment decisions, always conduct your own research and consult a professional if necessary.
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