As of July 15, 2025, BTC/USD (Bitcoin/US Dollar) has clearly entered a correction phase on the 1-hour chart. After a strong bullish trend in the previous days, the price has recorded consecutive bearish candles and is now trading below the recent support at $118,000. In this article, we conduct an in-depth assessment of the current market condition using multiple indicators including moving averages, MACD, ADX, and volume based on technical analysis.
This is a critical juncture not only for short-term traders but also for swing traders looking to reposition their strategies.
The blue moving average on the chart (likely MA50 or 20EMA) has turned downward, and the recent candlesticks have clearly broken below it. This line, which previously acted as support, is now functioning as resistance—an indication of growing selling pressure.
This transition of the moving average from support to resistance is often regarded as a turning point in trend. It's important to monitor both the slope and crossover of the moving average.
The MACD indicator shows the MACD line clearly below the signal line, with the histogram expanding further into negative territory. This suggests the current decline is not temporary but potentially a sustained momentum-driven downtrend.
When the MACD line crosses below the signal line along with an expanding histogram, it often signals increasing selling pressure, calling for cautious positioning.
Although the ADX line at the bottom of the chart is trending downward, it remains in the mid-20s, indicating the presence of a trend. Typically, an ADX above 25 indicates a strong trend, and the current level supports the credibility of the ongoing downtrend.
If the ADX shows signs of peaking or rising again, it may indicate trend acceleration or the end of a short-term correction, which traders should keep an eye on.
Volume has clearly increased during the recent decline, which is characteristic of a "breakdown due to selling." Generally, a support level break accompanied by volume is more reliable and often suggests further downside.
By observing volume peaks alongside price movements, traders can more accurately assess whether a trend is likely to continue or reverse.
| Level | Price | Meaning & Justification |
|---|---|---|
| Short-Term Resistance | $118,800 | Rebound point of the mid-term moving average |
| Next Target | $120,000 | Psychological threshold and previous high |
| Short-Term Support | $117,000 | Recent low, potential rebound if maintained |
| Mid-Term Support | $114,500 | Previous volume cluster zone, near lower channel boundary |
Currently, BTC/USD has broken below its mid-term moving average, and with strong downward momentum, the short-term support at $117,000 becomes a key level for future price action. If this line holds, short-term long positions aiming for a rebound could be considered. However, a drop below this level brings the $114,500 support into focus.
On the other hand, since MACD and ADX continue to show bearish signals, a strategy favoring sell-on-rally remains more advantageous at this stage. If the price recovers to $118,800, traders should consider switching to a rebound scenario.
BTC/USD appears to be in the early stages of transitioning into a downtrend. Core momentum indicators, volume, moving averages, and ADX all point to bearish sentiment, requiring traders to make cautious decisions.
Whether BTC/USD can hold the $117,000 level will likely determine the future market structure. Traders must continue monitoring the chart and indicators closely to craft logical and adaptive trading strategies.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please conduct your own research and practice proper risk management when trading financial instruments.
This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. The analyses and strategies mentioned are based on past data and current market conditions, and may be subject to change in the future. When making investment decisions, always conduct your own research and consult a professional if necessary.
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