BTC/USD Technical Analysis (1H): Momentum Shift, Breakout Strategy & Key Levels

Market Background and Current Price Movements

As of August 25, 2025, BTC/USD (Bitcoin/US Dollar) is at a crucial turning point on the 1-hour chart. On the 22nd, a sudden spike pushed prices up to a high of $116,800. However, the subsequent pullback has brought the pair back down to around $113,000, with the market lacking clear direction.

In this environment, calm and rational decisions based on technical analysis are essential. This article examines moving averages, MACD, ADX, and volume to assess market direction and potential trading strategies.

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Price Action and the Background of the Spike

Since mid-August, BTC/USD had been trading within a narrow range between $111,000 and $113,000. With little directional movement, many traders adopted a wait-and-see approach. Then, on the 22nd, a sudden influx of large buy orders sent the price soaring to $116,800 within just a few hours.

This move was likely driven by a combination of algorithmic trading triggers, short covering in the options market, and shifting sentiment due to ETF-related news from the U.S. However, the price failed to hold its gains and quickly retreated, reinforcing the market’s cautious tone.

Moving Averages (MA): A Failed Golden Cross

One key technical point is the relationship between the 20EMA (blue) and the 200SMA (red). Although the 20EMA briefly crossed above the 200SMA—hinting at a potential golden cross—the price quickly fell back below the 20EMA, and the crossover failed to confirm.

This kind of “failed golden cross” is often seen in early uptrend attempts. However, due to the lack of sustained momentum and volume, it is difficult to interpret this as a true bullish shift. The continued downward slope of the 200SMA also suggests that the medium-term trend remains weak.

MACD Analysis: Momentum Continues to Weaken

The MACD line surged above the signal line during the spike, and the histogram expanded significantly into positive territory. However, this momentum quickly faded, and the MACD lines are now converging again—indicating a clear loss of momentum. As a momentum indicator, the MACD now points to the end of short-term upward pressure and possibly a transition to a range-bound market. Traders should wait for a renewed signal before taking action.

ADX: Quantifying Trend Strength

The ADX briefly rose above 30, but has since fallen back to around 25. This decline suggests that doubts about the sustainability of the recent trend are growing. Based on the movement of +DI and -DI, buying pressure appears to be weakening, increasing the likelihood of a return to a non-directional market environment.

Volume Analysis: Caution Toward Potential Fakeouts

During the spike, trading volume surged, supporting the price increase. However, volume dropped sharply during the pullback. This suggests that the move may have been driven by short-term players liquidating positions. A rally without sustained volume is a classic sign of a “fakeout” and should be approached with caution.

Support and Resistance Levels: The Foundation for Strategy

Strategy Suggestions: Entry Points by Scenario

• Breakout Strategy: A break above $116,800 with increased volume could open the door toward $118,000 or higher. Stop-loss near $115,500.
• Pullback Buy: A long position could be considered if price rebounds from the $113,000–$112,500 area. Reconfirmation through MACD would strengthen the setup.
• Bearish Scenario: A break below $111,000 could increase selling pressure, targeting the $109,000 zone.

Don’t Overlook Macro Fundamentals

This recent price action isn’t only about technicals. Anticipation surrounding ETF approvals, U.S. interest rate trends, and central bank statements have all played a role. Bitcoin, in particular, reacts quickly to news events—making a blend of fundamental and technical analysis critical for developing sound strategies.

Conclusion: Prepare for the Next Major Move and Watch for Signals

The 1-hour BTC/USD chart shows signs of returning to a consolidation phase after a short-term spike and subsequent decline. With no strong directional bias from the moving averages, MACD, ADX, or volume, this is a period where patience is key.

That said, traders should stay alert for any potential breakout triggers—such as volume-supported rallies or key technical reversals. These could pave the way for the next meaningful opportunity in the market.

Disclaimer: This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research and trade at your own risk.

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