BTC/USD Technical Analysis (1-Hour Chart): Will Bitcoin Break Below $115,000 and Enter a Bearish Shift?

Market Overview and Current Price Action

As of August 1, 2025, BTC/USD (Bitcoin/US Dollar) has entered a short-term downtrend, approaching the key support level of $115,000 on the 1-hour chart. After breaking out of a prolonged range-bound phase, the market has sharply declined, drawing the attention of traders. This article uses technical analysis to assess short-term price direction and entry strategies through indicators such as moving averages (MA), MACD, ADX, volume, and support/resistance levels.

Chart provided by cTrader platform

Moving Average Analysis: Bearish Pressure Confirmed by Death Cross

On the chart, a "death cross" has formed as the short-term moving average (20EMA, blue) crosses below the long-term moving average (200SMA, red). This is a classic bearish signal, often interpreted as an early sign of a trend reversal. Both moving averages are trending downward, with the price positioned below them, indicating continued selling pressure. The growing distance between the 20EMA and the price also suggests an overshoot, pointing to the potential for a short-term rebound.

MACD Behavior: Selling Momentum Accelerates

The MACD is clearly below the signal line, and the histogram is expanding further into negative territory. This indicates that selling momentum is accelerating, and even if a short-term bounce occurs, selling pressure is likely to resume. The histogram has sunk deeper than the previous low, signaling a strong bearish phase. A trend reversal would require a bullish MACD crossover, which is currently not in sight.

ADX Analysis: Clear Trend Strength

The Average Directional Index (ADX) is above 25, suggesting the current downtrend is not a temporary fluctuation but part of a more defined movement. This level confirms that the market is showing strong directional intent—primarily bearish at the moment. If combined with a crossover of the +DI and -DI lines, trend strength and direction can be assessed more accurately, although selling dominance remains evident now.

Volume and Price Relationship: High-Confidence Breakdown

The recent drop near $115,000 has been accompanied by a surge in trading volume—a key development. Typically, sharp price moves accompanied by volume are considered more reliable. This supports the sustainability of the move and aligns with principles of Dow Theory, where a breakout without volume may be a false signal. In contrast, the current spike in volume confirms bearish momentum and raises the probability of a continued decline.

Support and Resistance Levels

Outlook: Strategy and Timing for Traders to Watch

The BTC/USD chart shows clear bearish signals across MACD, ADX, and moving averages. A confirmed break below $115,000 could open the way toward $113,000 as the next support. However, after a sharp drop, there is potential for a short-lived rebound or short-covering rally. If such a rebound occurs, resistance is likely to emerge again near the $117,500–$118,000 range.

For short-term traders, counter-trend trades during rebounds carry higher risk. A trend-following strategy that waits for pullbacks or retests of resistance (e.g., around 20EMA) may be more robust. Mid-term traders may wait for volume to decline or MACD to cross bullishly before considering reversal entries.

Conclusion: Alignment Between Indicators and Price Action Is Key

BTC/USD is at a critical support test around $115,000. Major technical indicators are aligned in a bearish formation, highlighting the risk of continued momentum. The next developments hinge on whether the support holds and how volume behaves in response. Proper risk management and careful monitoring of this level are crucial to identifying trend initiation and building effective trade strategies.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting with a financial professional before making trading decisions.

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