BTC/USD Technical Analysis (1-Hour Chart): Rebound at $115,000, But Downtrend Remains Intact

Market Background and Latest Price Movements

As of August 19, 2025, the cryptocurrency market continues to experience high volatility. In particular, BTC/USD (Bitcoin/US Dollar) has shown signs of a rebound near the $115,000 mark after several days of decline, and is currently trading around $116,500. This area has historically served as a support zone and is drawing attention as a potential short-term rebound level.

This article provides a comprehensive overview of the current market situation and potential future scenarios through detailed technical analysis based on the 1-hour chart. Key indicators such as moving averages (MA), MACD, RSI, and volume are utilized to assess market direction.

Moving Average (MA) Analysis: The Impact of the Death Cross Lingers

Both the short-term (50MA) and long-term (200MA) moving averages displayed on the chart are sloping downward, forming a classic bearish trend structure. Notably, a death cross occurred around August 14, highlighting the dominance of the downtrend from a technical perspective.

The current price is trading below both moving averages, indicating strong overhead resistance and a cautious market sentiment. For a bullish reversal to be considered, the price must decisively break through the $117,500–$119,000 zone.

MACD Analysis: Signs of Rebound Within a Weak Framework

The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator shows a bullish crossover, with the yellow MACD line crossing above the red signal line. This suggests a modest improvement in momentum, with the histogram slightly above the zero line.

However, the MACD’s slope remains limited, and it is premature to conclude a strong trend reversal. Watching for a steep upward angle in the MACD line and continued expansion in the histogram will be key to gauging the sustainability of the rebound.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Battle Around the 50 Line

The RSI is currently hovering around the 50 mark, indicating a lack of clear market direction. This level is known as a “neutral zone,” where the market is neither oversold (below 30) nor overbought (above 70).

If the RSI climbs above 60–65, it could indicate a shift toward bullish dominance. Conversely, a drop below 45 would suggest that the rebound is temporary and that the downtrend may resume.

Volume Analysis: Liquidity in the Rebound Phase

Volume is a crucial factor in validating price movements. In this recent rebound phase, no significant increase in trading volume has been observed, indicating a lack of strong buying interest so far.

Rallies without accompanying volume often turn out to be short-lived. However, if volume surges above $117,500, it could signal a more reliable trend reversal supported by genuine buying pressure.

Key Technical Levels: Support and Resistance Zones

Conclusion: Watch Technical Indicators Despite Lack of Direction

The 1-hour BTC/USD chart shows signs of a rebound, but the longer-term downtrend still dominates. While some indicators like MACD and RSI show improvement, the downward slope of the moving averages suggests that a full reversal may take time.

For short-term traders, a decisive breakout above the $117,500 resistance level could signal a shift in market structure. Conversely, a break below $115,000 would likely accelerate selling pressure again.

It's important to recognize that this rebound may be a short-term correction. Combining multiple indicators—momentum, volume shifts, and MA positioning—will provide more reliable trade decisions.

Note to Investors

This analysis is based solely on technical perspectives. Fundamental factors—such as CPI data, FOMC announcements, or Bitcoin ETF developments—can significantly affect short-term trends. Staying updated with the news is essential.

Since the market is highly dynamic, it's critical to remain flexible in strategy, manage risk with proper stop-loss levels, and practice sound capital management.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All trading decisions should be made at your own discretion and responsibility.

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