BTC/USD Analysis for May 1, 2025: Bitcoin Tests Key Resistance

BTC/USD Analysis – Rebound Near $94,800, Potential Entry Into Short-Term Uptrend?

Overview (May 1, 2025)

BTC/USD has recovered from the sharp drop on April 30 (from approximately $93,200 to $92,500) and is now trading around $94,800. The latest chart shows a clear breakout above the 50-hour moving average, indicating short-term buying pressure. However, the divergence from the 200-hour moving average and the low ADX level suggest that the market remains unstable, and a clear trend has yet to emerge. Whether BTC can successfully break the psychological barrier at $95,000 is the key factor that will determine the direction moving forward.

Key Point 1: Breakout Above 50-Hour Moving Average

Currently, BTC/USD has broken above the 50-hour moving average (blue line), triggering a short-term buy signal. Notably, after the sharp decline on April 30, the price has been forming higher lows, suggesting a potential trend reversal. If the 50MA acts as support going forward, bullish momentum may strengthen. However, the $95,000 resistance remains significant and will require strong volume to be breached effectively.

Key Point 2: ADX Remains Low, Market Direction Still Unclear

The ADX (yellow line) at the bottom of the chart remains in the low 0.10 range, signaling that a clear trend has not yet developed. This implies that the recent volatile moves are more like “noise” rather than the beginning of a new trend. However, +DI (green line) is starting to cross above –DI (red line), indicating a potential short-term bullish advantage. If the ADX breaks above 0.20, it could mark the beginning of a more sustained trend with increased volatility.

Key Point 3: Volume Spike During Sell-Off Supports Short-Term Rebound

A noticeable surge in volume was observed during the sharp sell-off late on April 30, likely due to panic selling and stop-loss orders. Since then, volume has remained relatively steady during the rebound, lending credibility to the recovery. However, further upward movement will require more bullish momentum. In particular, a breakout above the $95,000 range will depend on new buying interest exceeding the previous high.

※Image source: cTrader platform

Outlook and Trading Strategy

The short-term direction of BTC/USD will largely depend on the following key price levels and indicators:

• Can BTC break the $95,000 psychological resistance?: A successful breakout would shift the target to the $95,800–$96,500 range.
• Risk of a Death Cross Between 50MA and 200MA: If the 50MA turns downward and crosses below the 200MA, renewed downside pressure may emerge.
• ADX Break Above 0.20: Would confirm a trend, making trend-following strategies more effective.
• Maintain Support at $92,500: If this level breaks again, the downside risk could rapidly expand toward the $91,000 zone.

Example Trade Setups

Bullish Scenario (Breakout Play)
Entry: Long after a confirmed breakout above $95,000
Take Profit Target: $95,800–$96,500
Stop Loss: Below $94,200

Bearish Scenario (Reversal at Resistance)
Entry: Short after confirmation of a rejection between $94,800–$95,000
Take Profit Target: $93,200–$92,500
Stop Loss: Above $95,300

Conclusion:

BTC/USD is in a short-term recovery phase following the late-April sell-off, and the price reclaiming the 50MA signals potential technical improvement. However, ADX remains low and the market lacks clear direction, warranting caution. A confirmed breakout above $95,000 could indicate a trend reversal. On the other hand, without strong supporting volume and technical signals, downside pressure may return. Flexible strategy adjustments are essential.

Disclaimer:

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell cryptocurrencies. All trading decisions are the responsibility of the trader.
For real-time analysis of BTC/USD and other crypto pairs, visit the FIXIO blog.