Overview:
As of April 9, 2025, the USD/JPY 1-hour chart shows signs of bottoming out around the 145.50 level following a continuous decline. Using technical indicators such as ADX, MACD, and moving averages, we analyze potential turning points in the market and consider future trading strategies. For real-time economic data and fundamental updates on USD/JPY, please refer to the official website of the Bank of Japan (BOJ).
Key Point 1: Price remains weak below the 50MA, but signs of a rebound appear
Currently, USD/JPY continues its downtrend after breaking below the 50-hour moving average (blue line), a key medium-term support level. However, the candlesticks around 145.50 are showing lower wicks, suggesting a potential short-term bottom. The 200-hour moving average (red line) continues to cap the upside, and a clearer reversal would require stronger bullish momentum.
Image source: cTrader platform
Key Point 2: ADX indicates slowing trend momentum
The ADX has peaked and is now trending lower, signaling that the current downward momentum may be losing strength. This could imply a sideways movement or even a potential reversal. At this stage, rather than chasing breakouts, strategies such as pullback selling or short-term scalping may prove more effective.
Key Point 3: Is a reversal signal forming in the MACD?
Although the MACD line (yellow) and signal line (red) remain in a downward trend, the histogram’s negative bars are starting to shrink. If this continues, a bullish crossover could occur within the next few hours, presenting an opportunity for a short-term upward move. However, sustained bullish momentum is required for the MACD to cross above the zero line.
Outlook and Trading Strategy: Rebound or further decline? A turning point
While USD/JPY is showing signs of a short-term rebound, the overall trend remains downward. Consider the following key points when planning your trading strategy:
Potential MACD crossover and histogram behavior
Further ADX decline and volume developments
Whether USD/JPY can break above the 146.00–146.30 resistance zone
Example Trade Setups (by Scenario)
Bullish Scenario (Rebound Play):
Entry: Around 145.80
Take Profit: 146.40–146.60
Stop Loss: Below 145.30
Bearish Scenario (Continuation of Downtrend):
Entry: Below 145.30
Take Profit: 144.70–144.50
Stop Loss: Above 145.90
Note: This strategy is for educational purposes only. Please prioritize risk management and make your own decisions when trading.
Conclusion: Cautious optimism as rebound signs emerge, but trend remains bearish
Technical indicators suggest that the recent downtrend may be pausing, with potential for a short-term rebound. However, given the current positioning of moving averages and weakening ADX, any upward movement may be limited. Continue to monitor market direction closely and remain flexible with your positions, while maintaining solid risk management.
For the latest updates, visit the FIXIO blog.
This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. The analyses and strategies mentioned are based on past data and current market conditions, and may be subject to change in the future. When making investment decisions, always conduct your own research and consult a professional if necessary.
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