【USD/JPY】1-Hour Chart Analysis｜April 4, 2025: Bearish Trend Continues or Signs of Reversal?

  Overview: Dollar-Yen Consolidates with Uncertain Momentum

As of April 4, 2025, the USD/JPY 1-hour chart shows the pair consolidating within a narrow range, under continued pressure from a broader downtrend. This analysis uses key technical indicators—ADX, MACD, and moving averages—to forecast potential price movements and provide actionable short-term trading strategies.

For real-time economic events and additional fundamentals related to USD/JPY, refer to the following sources:

• Bank of Japan Official Website

【Key Point 1】Downtrend Remains Intact Below Descending Trendline

The USD/JPY price is currently capped by a descending trendline from the higher timeframes, with recent candles forming lower highs near the 146.50 resistance. Despite attempts at recovery, the broader market structure still leans bearish. Volume remains subdued, reflecting low conviction among traders. The current price movement between 145.50 and 146.50 suggests a consolidation phase. However, the inability to break the trendline confirms the sellers still maintain control.

【Key Point 2】ADX Suggests Trend Strengthening

The Average Directional Index (ADX) is rising and approaching the 40 level. This typically signals that a strong move either a breakout or breakdown is approaching. Traders should monitor closely for a decisive candle beyond the range. A breakout above 146.50 may signal a reversal attempt, while a close below 145.30 could resume the bearish leg.

【Key Point 3】MACD Hints at a Possible Bullish Crossover

The MACD histogram remains slightly below the zero line, but the MACD and signal lines are narrowing. A bullish crossover appears possible in the near term, which may trigger a short-lived rally toward the upper range. Still, unless the pair breaks above the key resistance zone, any bullish move should be treated as a counter-trend retracement.

Forecast & Trading Strategy: Watching for a Breakout

The pair remains at a decision point. Traders should focus on:

• Whether MACD confirms a crossover above the zero line

• ADX breaking through 40 with expanding volume

• Price action around the 146.50 resistance or the 145.30 support

Trade Setup Examples

• Bullish Scenario: Entry at 145.70–145.80, Target at 146.40+, Stop below 145.30
• Bearish Scenario: Entry below 145.30, Target at 144.80, Stop above 145.80

Summary: Breakout or Rejection – Key Inflection Point Ahead

While the technical backdrop continues to favor bears, early signs of momentum reversal are emerging through MACD and volume shifts. The next few sessions will be critical to determine whether this is a sell-the-rally scenario or the beginning of a bullish correction. Stay flexible and manage risk accordingly.

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This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please make sure to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.

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