【USD/JPY】1-Hour Chart Analysis｜April 22, 2025

USD/JPY Analysis – Continuation of Decline Near 140.00, Watch for Support

Overview:

As of April 22, 2025, USD/JPY continues its decline, with prices trading near the 140.00 support level. In this analysis, we will use ADX, MACD, and moving averages to forecast market trends and suggest short-term trading strategies.

Key Point 1: Continued Downward Pressure Near 140.00

Currently, USD/JPY is experiencing downward pressure near the 140.00 level, with this support being tested. If this support breaks, further decline toward the next support zone, around 139.50, is expected. The price is positioned below the 50-period moving average, indicating the market is still in a bearish direction.

• Key Point: The 140.00 level is a critical support area, and if it breaks, further downside movement may be confirmed.

Image source: cTrader platform

Key Point 2: ADX Suggests Weak Trend Continuation

The current ADX (Average Directional Index) is below 20, indicating that the trend remains weak. This suggests that the market is moving within a range, and no strong trend is forming. The downward pressure may persist near 140.00, and the range-bound movement is likely to continue until a clear trend emerges.

• Key Point: The weak ADX suggests that the range-bound market will persist, with selling pressure continuing until a clear trend forms.

Key Point 3: MACD Suggests Bearish Momentum

The MACD line is below the signal line, and the histogram is in negative territory. This confirms that downward pressure remains strong, and there is a high likelihood that prices will continue moving lower.

• Key Point: The bearish MACD crossover indicates that the current downward momentum is likely to continue, with further declines expected in the short term.

Forecast and Trading Strategy:

Currently, USD/JPY is in a downtrend, and range-bound movement is expected to continue. Focus on the following points to predict the next move:

• ADX: As long as ADX remains below 20, the strength of the trend will not be confirmed. If ADX rises, it will signal the emergence of a trend, making trend-following strategies effective.

• MACD: As long as the MACD line stays below the signal line, there is a high probability that the price will continue to decline.

Support and Resistance: The support near 140.00 is holding, and if this level is broken, the next support is around 139.50.

Trade Examples (by Scenario)

Bullish Scenario (Seeking Reversal)

• Entry: Near 140.00

• Take Profit Target: Above 140.50

• Stop Loss: Below 139.70

Bearish Scenario (Seeking Decline)

• Entry: Below 140.00

• Take Profit Target: 139.50

• Stop Loss: Above 140.30

Summary:

Current technical indicators suggest that USD/JPY will continue to face downward pressure. Pay close attention to the movements of MACD and ADX, as a break below the 140.00 support line is likely to result in further declines. It is important to trade cautiously while monitoring market developments.

Disclaimer:

This article is intended for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. All investment decisions should be made based on your own judgment and responsibility.

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