【XAU/USD】1-Hour Chart Analysis - April 30, 2025

XAU/USD Analysis – Approaching $3,300 Break, Selling Pressure Intensifies

Overview (April 30, 2025)

XAU/USD is currently trading around $3,309, approaching the $3,300 support line in the short term. In recent hours, the price has been under pressure, trading clearly below the moving averages, indicating a continuation of the selling trend. Technical indicators such as ADX and DMI suggest signs of a trend reversal, and MACD is beginning to show bearish signals. A clear break below $3,300 could accelerate the decline towards the $3,280–$3,265 range, making a selling strategy effective in this market environment.

Key Point 1: Resistance Indicated by Moving Averages

Currently, XAU/USD is trading slightly below both the 50-hour (blue line) and 200-hour (red line) moving averages, with short-term rebounds being capped by resistance. Particularly since the high on April 29, the upward movement has been hindered by the downward-sloping 50MA, indicating a loss of buying momentum. A clear break below the $3,300 support line could increase the risk of a new short-term downward wave.

Key Point 2: ADX and DMI Indicate Trend Deceleration and Potential Reacceleration

The ADX (yellow line) at the bottom of the chart has been declining recently, indicating a slight trend stagnation. However, observing the crossover of +DI (green line) and –DI (red line), there is a possibility of reacceleration in the selling direction. Especially if –DI maintains its position above +DI and ADX begins to rise again after breaking below $3,300, it could signal the emergence of a new downward trend.

Key Point 3: MACD and Volume Suggest Selling Momentum

In the MACD (lower indicator), the MACD line (yellow) has crossed below the signal line (red), forming a dead cross. Additionally, the histogram is in negative territory, indicating weakening momentum. Volume has also been increasing recently, suggesting that selling pressure is gradually strengthening. If a break below $3,300 is confirmed with accompanying volume, the advantage of short positions is expected to increase further.

*Image Source: cTrader Platform

Future Outlook and Trading Strategy

The future movement of XAU/USD will focus on the following key technical points:

• Can the $3,300 support be maintained?: A clear break below this line would target the $3,280–$3,265 range.
• Price Position Relative to Moving Averages (MA): As long as the price continues to trade below the MA in the short term, selling on rebounds is effective.
• Will ADX Turn Up Again?: Since it signals trend reacceleration, it is useful for timing short positions.

Trade Scenario Examples

Bearish Scenario (Targeting Decline)
Entry: Short entry after confirming a break below $3,300
Profit Target: $3,280–$3,265
Stop Loss: Above $3,318

Bullish Scenario (Targeting Short-Term Rebound)
Entry: Short-term long entry after confirming a rebound around $3,300
Profit Target: Around $3,320
Stop Loss: Below $3,295

Summary:

XAU/USD is currently in a selling-dominant environment, with particular attention on the battle around the important support at $3,300. Multiple technical indicators such as moving averages, MACD, ADX, DMI, and volume are showing bearish signs, indicating an increased short-term downside risk. Especially if the price breaks below $3,300, a swift short strategy is considered effective. While thoroughly managing risk, consider trend-following short positions.

Disclaimer:

This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific financial product. All trading decisions are your own responsibility.
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