BTC/USD Analysis for May 5, 2025: Bitcoin Tests Key Resistan

BTC/USD Analysis – Correction Deepens Below 94,000, Further Downside in Sight?

Overview (May 5, 2025)

As of May 5, 2025, BTC/USD has fallen to around 93,991, clearly breaking below the psychological threshold of 94,000, strengthening the bearish market sentiment. The pair has broken below the previously stable 95,000–97,000 range, suggesting signs of a trend reversal, with the next downside target now focused around 92,000. Notably, the price has dropped below both the 50-hour and 200-hour moving averages, increasing the likelihood of entering a short- to mid-term downtrend.

Key Point 1: Death Cross in Moving Averages Indicates Selling Pressure

The current chart shows the 50-hour moving average (blue line) turning downward from a flat position, and the gap with the 200-hour moving average (red line) narrowing — a potential "death cross" formation. This is a sign of mid-term trend weakness and has often preceded bearish shifts in past instances. The price has already dropped below both moving averages, with the 50MA now acting as resistance against any short-term recovery.

Currently, sell orders are likely to cluster around 95,000, and even if there’s a short rebound, the price may face strong resistance at this level. The slope and position of the moving averages continue to signal a bearish outlook.

Key Point 2: ADX and DMI Indicate Strengthening Trend

The ADX (yellow line) displayed at the bottom of the chart is currently hovering around 0.15, indicating that the trend is in its early stages but is showing an upward trajectory. If the ADX clearly surpasses 0.20, it would indicate a stronger trend formation, warranting close attention in the coming hours or day.

Additionally, the DMI shows the –DI (red line) above the +DI (green line), clearly indicating selling dominance. As long as this condition persists, any recovery is expected to be limited, and a strong bearish bias is likely to continue.

Key Point 3: Rising Volume Suggests Genuine Selling Activity

Another noteworthy factor is the significant increase in trading volume during the recent decline. Especially between the 94,500–94,000 zone, the drop was accompanied by heavy volume, suggesting increased short positions from investors. In technical analysis, price movements backed by volume are more credible, and this decline may develop into a sustained trend rather than just a temporary correction.

If volume increases again and the price breaks below 93,500, traders should be alert for accelerated selling.

※Image source: cTrader platform

Outlook and Trading Strategy

The short-term movement of BTC/USD is approaching a potential turning point based on the following technical levels:

• Support at 93,500: A clear break below this level could lead to a drop toward 91,800–92,000.
• Resistance around 95,000: Even if a short-term rebound occurs, failure to surpass this level may provide another selling opportunity.
• ADX surpassing 0.20: A clear breakout would confirm a downtrend, enhancing the case for short strategies.

Trade Scenarios

Bearish Scenario (Following the Downtrend)
Entry: Short position after a confirmed break below 93,500
Target: 91,800–91,500
Stop Loss: Exit above 94,800

Bullish Scenario (Targeting Short-Term Rebound)
Entry: Long position after confirming a rebound near the 93,500 support
Target: 94,800–95,000
Stop Loss: Exit below 93,200

Conclusion:

The 1-hour chart of BTC/USD shows several indicators — drop below moving averages, DMI sell signals, early ADX trend signs, and increasing volume — all supporting a bearish shift. At this point, even if a short-term rebound occurs, it is likely to be seen as a selling opportunity, and a trend-following short strategy appears effective.

In particular, the 93,500 recent low is a critical level, and market attention will be focused on the price action around this line. Until a clear trend signal emerges, strict risk management and flexible strategies are essential.

Disclaimer:

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific financial product. All trading decisions should be made at your own discretion and risk.
For the latest updates and analysis of other currency pairs, visit the FIXIO blog!