As of July 24, 2025, XAU/USD (Gold/US Dollar) has broken below the $3400 support level on the 1-hour chart, signaling the dominance of a short-term downtrend. After the sharp rally on July 21–22 that pushed the price above $3440, the pair has entered a correction phase.
This article examines future price direction and trading strategies using technical analysis indicators such as moving averages (MA), MACD, ADX, RSI, and volume.
Currently, both the 20EMA (short-term) and 50EMA (mid-term) are sloping downward, with the price trading below both. Moreover, the 20EMA is approaching the 200SMA (long-term), increasing the likelihood of forming a death cross, which often signals a medium-term trend reversal.
The MACD line has crossed below the signal line, and the histogram is expanding in the negative zone. This indicates a clear shift in momentum to the downside, with weak potential for a short-term rebound.
The ADX remains around 40, indicating a strong and clear trend. As long as the trend direction does not reverse, the current bearish market conditions are likely to persist.
The RSI is currently between 30 and 35. A dip below 30 would indicate entry into the oversold zone. While short-term rebounds may be possible, a confirmed reversal would require confirmation from other indicators or chart patterns.
Volume has increased during the drop below $3400, reflecting intensified selling pressure from short builds and stop-loss triggers. In technical analysis, price moves accompanied by volume are considered more reliable.
| Level | Price | Significance & Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Short-term Resistance | $3415 | Near 50EMA, a likely zone for selling pressure on retracement |
| Next Target | $3450 | Previous high; likely to act as psychological resistance |
| Short-term Support | $3380 | Recent bullish retracement bottom, potential rebound point |
| Mid-term Support | $3350 | Coincides with 200SMA, may act as strong support |
Given the confirmed break below $3400, XAU/USD is clearly in a correction phase. A strategy focused on selling the rally is appropriate, especially within the $3415–$3430 range.
On the other hand, if the price drops below $3380, a move toward $3350 may unfold. Thus, stop-loss placement and capital management are critical. Additionally, if RSI falls below 30, a short-term rebound could occur, requiring cautious entry decisions.
Note that upcoming key economic events such as the FOMC meeting and U.S. CPI release may cause sudden spikes in volatility. Consider incorporating fundamental analysis into your decision-making process.
*Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Final decisions should be made at your own discretion and risk.
This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. The analyses and strategies mentioned are based on past data and current market conditions, and may be subject to change in the future. When making investment decisions, always conduct your own research and consult a professional if necessary.
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