As of July 29, 2025, XAU/USD (Gold/US Dollar) has been forming a sustained downtrend on the 1-hour chart. Recently, price action has centered around the $3300 level, indicating a potential consolidation phase. In this article, we will analyze the market outlook using technical analysis indicators including moving averages, MACD, ADX, and volume.
On the current chart, both the short-term 50-period moving average (blue) and the long-term 200-period moving average (red) are sloping downward, confirming a classic bearish trend structure. The price remains below both MAs, underscoring strong downside momentum.
Notably, a past crossover where the 50MA dropped below the 200MA—similar to a "death cross"—further supports the persistent selling pressure. For more details about moving averages, refer to this page.
The MACD is currently below the signal line, with the histogram also in negative territory. This suggests that market momentum remains bearish, and any short-term rebound is likely to be limited. Learn more about momentum indicators.
Of particular interest is the narrowing gap between the MACD and signal lines, which could foreshadow either a further drop or a minor rebound in the near term.
The ADX (Average Directional Index) is currently fluctuating between 20 and 25, indicating a potential weakening of the trend's strength. This may signal a transition into a consolidation phase rather than an active trend.
However, if ADX rises back above 25, it may suggest the downtrend is gaining strength once again, warranting close attention from traders.
Volume spikes have occurred alongside price declines, indicating aggressive selling activity. This kind of "volume-backed decline" typically enhances the reliability of the trend signal.
In contrast, recent candles show decreasing volume during sideways price action, suggesting that market participants are waiting for the next move to emerge.
| Level | Price | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Short-term Resistance | $3340 | Confluence of recent swing highs |
| Next Target Resistance | $3360 | Psychological level aligned with the 200MA |
| Short-term Support | $3300 | Recent low and reaction area |
| Mid-term Support | $3260 | Historical support zone and high volume area |
The 1-hour chart of XAU/USD continues to reflect a bearish bias. Prices remain below the major moving averages, while MACD and ADX also confirm bearish signals. Technically, a sell-on-rally strategy appears most appropriate under current conditions.
However, if price stabilizes around the $3300 short-term support zone, a temporary rebound may occur. Even in that case, the $3340–$3360 area is likely to serve as a strong resistance, requiring cautious decision-making.
Traders should monitor changes in volatility, volume surges, and the ADX trend to anticipate the next directional move. In the mid- to long-term, macroeconomic factors such as interest rate changes and inflation data should also be considered.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please conduct your own research and trade responsibly.
This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. The analyses and strategies mentioned are based on past data and current market conditions, and may be subject to change in the future. When making investment decisions, always conduct your own research and consult a professional if necessary.
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