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Canadian Dollar’s Sideways Trading Pattern Amid Market Risks

Canadian Dollar’s Sideways Trading Pattern Amid Market Risks

Canadian Dollar Holds Steady Amid Economic Uncertainty

The Canadian dollar has been moving in a sideways trading pattern against the U.S. dollar. Investors are waiting for more clarity on potential U.S. trade tariffs and additional Bank of Canada (BoC) policy measures.

On Monday, the loonie remained unchanged at 1.4220 per U.S. dollar, or 70.32 U.S. cents. It traded within a narrow range of 1.4183 to 1.4244. The currency has rebounded from a 22-year low of 1.4793 on February 3, yet it has struggled to gain further ground since mid-month.

Key Factors Influencing the Canadian Dollar

Several factors are contributing to the sideways trading pattern of the Canadian dollar:

  • Uncertainty Over U.S. Trade Tariffs: Canada and Mexico are working to avoid a 25% tariff on exports to the U.S. Talks with the U.S. administration aim to demonstrate efforts to enhance border security and curb fentanyl trafficking before the March 4 deadline.
  • Bank of Canada’s Next Move: Investors are speculating on potential interest rate cuts. There is a 37% chance the BoC will lower rates by 25 basis points on March 12, following last month’s cut to 3%.
  • Tariffs’ Economic Impact: BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has warned that increased tariffs and Canada’s possible retaliation could severely impact domestic economic growth in 2025 and 2026, causing a one-time surge in inflation.
  • Investor Sentiment: Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows a decrease in bearish bets on the loonie. As of February 18, net short positions fell to 144,643 contracts from 150,834 the previous week.

Oil Prices and Bond Yields Affect the Loonie

Since Canada is a major oil exporter, fluctuations in crude prices often impact the Canadian dollar. On Monday, oil prices rose 0.4%, settling at $70.70 per barrel. Investors are closely monitoring geopolitical developments, including peace talks related to the Ukraine war.

Additionally, Canadian bond yields declined slightly. The 10-year bond yield dropped 1.2 basis points to 3.096%, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.

What’s Next for the Canadian Dollar?

The future direction of the Canadian dollar depends on several factors. Clarity on U.S. trade policies, upcoming BoC policy decisions, and movements in global oil prices will play crucial roles. If trade tensions ease and interest rates remain stable, the loonie may regain upward momentum. Otherwise, continued economic uncertainty could keep the currency trading within a sideways pattern.

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Canadian Dollar’s Sideways Trading Pattern Amid Market Risks

The Canadian dollar continues its sideways trading pattern as investors await updates on U.S. trade tariffs and BoC policy.

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DANIEL JOHN GRADY
Author

Daniel John Grady is a financial analyst and writer. He is a former CFO with a degree in Financial Management and has been published in both English and Spanish. With over ten years of equities trading experience, he is primarily interested in foreign exchange and emerging markets with a focus on Latin America.

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