As of August 5, 2025, BTC/USD (Bitcoin vs US Dollar) is trading around $114,814 on the 1-hour timeframe. A sustained downtrend has persisted since late July, but the price found support near $112,000 between August 1–3 and is currently showing signs of recovery.
This technical analysis explores the current market structure and future scenarios using key indicators of technical analysis, including moving averages, MACD, ADX, and the relationship between volume and price.
The red and blue lines on the chart represent the 200-period Simple Moving Average (200SMA) and 50-period Exponential Moving Average (50EMA), respectively. The current price remains below both, with the 200SMA acting as upper resistance, indicating that the medium- to long-term trend remains bearish.
However, price action has recently approached the 50EMA, suggesting a potential breakout from the consolidation range. The narrowing distance between the 50EMA and 200SMA also indicates a volatility squeeze, which often precedes a directional breakout. For more on this, see the explanation of moving averages.
In the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator, the MACD line has formed a golden cross above the signal line and is approaching the zero line. The histogram is also gradually transitioning from negative to positive territory, indicating a short-term momentum shift to the upside.
Such a pattern is often seen at the early stage of a potential trend reversal. However, to increase its reliability, additional confirmation via rising volume or a clear break above key moving averages is necessary. For more on MACD, see this explanation.
The ADX (Average Directional Index) is currently hovering around 20–25, suggesting the market has yet to form a strong trend. This range-bound or consolidation phase implies that breakout strategies may be more suitable than trend-following approaches at this stage. A reading above 30 would be needed to signal stronger directional movement.
The next significant wave is likely to be determined by which direction the ADX begins to respond to more strongly—bullish or bearish.
During this rebound phase, volume remains relatively subdued compared to the recovery in price, indicating that the rebound lacks strong participation. In prior sell-offs, selling volume was notably high, while current buying volume appears weaker. This casts doubt on the reliability of this reversal.
To target higher levels such as $115,600 to $117,000, a breakout backed by a significant increase in volume is essential.
| Level | Price | Reason / Context |
|---|---|---|
| Short-Term Resistance | $115,600 | Near the 50EMA, recent rebound high |
| Next Target | $117,000 | Coincides with 200SMA and psychological round number |
| Short-Term Support | $113,000 | Low range from August 1–2, recent pivot point |
| Mid-Term Support | $112,000 | Previous support zone, high-volume area |
BTC/USD is showing signs of bottoming out after a downtrend, with improvements in MACD momentum and stabilizing candlesticks suggesting an early recovery phase. However, a confirmed bullish scenario is not yet in place due to insufficient volume support, ADX levels, and lack of moving average breakouts.
In the short term, whether price can decisively break above $115,600 is a key milestone. If successful, this could open the path toward $117,000. On the other hand, if price breaks below $113,000, the risk of retesting the $112,000 level increases.
Additionally, upcoming U.S. economic indicators—such as Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI—may add volatility. Traders should formulate strategies that take into account both momentum and macroeconomic fundamentals.
This may be a "quiet before the storm" phase before a trend emerges. Short-term traders may consider breakout strategies, while medium-term traders could look for pullback entries around support levels.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please conduct your own research before making any trading decisions.
This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. The analyses and strategies mentioned are based on past data and current market conditions, and may be subject to change in the future. When making investment decisions, always conduct your own research and consult a professional if necessary.
Superior trade execution & trading conditions with the NDD method.
The online FX industry provides a platform for investors worldwide to engage in the buying and selling.
Subscribe to our daily newsletter and get the best forex trading information and markets status updates
Trade within minutes!
Comment (0)