BTC/USD Technical Analysis (1-Hour Chart): Recovery Above $108,000 – Is the Rebound Trend Real?

Market Background and Current Price Action

As of July 7, 2025, BTC/USD (Bitcoin/US Dollar) is in a rebound phase on the 1-hour chart around a key support zone. Following a sharp decline last week that briefly pushed the price below $107,000, the pair has now recovered above the $108,000 level at the start of the new week.

This level is a critical price zone where past support and resistance converge, making it a key level that may influence future movements. In this analysis, we use technical analysis to objectively evaluate the market using multiple indicators such as moving averages, MACD, ADX, and volume.

Chart provided by cTrader platform

Moving Averages: Early Trend or Temporary Rebound?

One notable aspect of the current chart is the relationship between the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (20EMA, blue) and the 200-period Simple Moving Average (200SMA, red). After temporarily falling below the 200SMA due to the recent drop, the price has now rebounded above this long-term line.

However, the 20EMA is still trending downward, suggesting the trend has not yet fully reversed. Depending on how the price moves next, two potential scenarios are possible: a “death cross” between the 20EMA and 200SMA, or a rebound that avoids the crossover. Crosses of moving averages are widely watched by traders as trend-reversal signals.

MACD: What the Momentum Shift Suggests

According to the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), the MACD line has recently crossed above the signal line, and the histogram is expanding above the zero line. This movement indicates a shift in momentum from selling pressure to buying strength.

Whether the MACD can stay firmly above the zero line will be a key factor in determining if the rebound continues. If sustained, this could be the first step toward a trend reversal on higher timeframes.

ADX: Key Indicator to Measure Trend Strength

The Average Directional Index (ADX) is currently below 25, indicating the absence of a strong trend. This suggests that the recent price action is more of a range or correction phase rather than a strong uptrend or downtrend.

If the ADX rises and surpasses 25 in the coming sessions, the current rebound may be increasingly viewed as the beginning of a new uptrend. Learn more about ADX here.

Volume: Is There Real Support Behind the Rebound?

The chart shows a spike in volume during the sharp drop around July 5, often associated with capitulation or the final phase of panic selling. Since then, the price has stabilized and recovered above $108,000, which could signal a temporary bottom.

However, volume during the rebound remains limited, suggesting the move is more of a technical bounce from oversold conditions rather than strong buying interest. For the rally to be sustainable, volume must increase along with rising prices.

Support and Resistance Levels

Conclusion: Key Points and Strategy Going Forward

BTC/USD currently shows signs of stabilization, with a rebound continuing around the $108,000 level. While the MACD points to a momentum shift, the ADX reading and lack of strong volume suggest that it’s still too early to confirm a sustained bullish trend.

If BTC/USD can clearly break above $109,000 and hold $108,000 during a pullback, a rise toward the next target at $110,000 may come into view. On the other hand, a break below $107,500 may increase selling pressure again. In short-term trading, risk management is critical in this uncertain phase.

By integrating the relationships between momentum, moving averages, and volume, traders can build flexible strategies to adapt to evolving market conditions.

Disclaimer: This article is intended solely for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. All investment decisions should be made at your own discretion and risk.

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