As of August 15, 2025, BTC/USD (Bitcoin/US Dollar) shows signs of a rebound on the 1-hour chart after a short-term downtrend. Following a sharp drop that temporarily pushed the price below $116,000, strong buying pressure at a support zone led to a recovery, with current price levels hovering around $118,918. The price is approaching the short-term moving average (20MA), indicating a potentially critical point for the next market direction.
This analysis leverages technical analysis methods to examine key indicators including moving averages, MACD, RSI, ADX, and volume to forecast future trends in the BTC/USD pair.
The current price is hovering around the long-term moving average (200SMA in red), signaling a key mid-term reference level. Meanwhile, the short-term 20EMA (blue) remains downward sloping after forming a crossover during the previous downtrend. This pattern is similar to a death cross, indicating persistent bearish pressure.
However, price action is attempting to break back above the short-term average. If it successfully uses the MA as support, this could signal the strengthening of a bullish reversal. A solid base above the 200SMA would be interpreted as a medium-term positive shift.
On the MACD indicator, the MACD line (yellow) is beginning to cross above the signal line (red), with the histogram narrowing from the negative side. This suggests that bearish momentum is weakening and a build-up of bullish energy may be underway.
If the MACD completes a golden cross, it would further confirm a shift to bullish momentum, potentially fueling upward price pressure in the short term.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) briefly dipped below 30 — indicating an oversold condition — but has since recovered to the upper 40s. This strengthens the case for a short-term rebound. Should the RSI move above 50, it could serve as a signal that buying power is increasing.
The Average Directional Index (ADX) is currently around the 30 mark, which suggests a strong trend is present. Given that ADX was rising during the previous downtrend, the key question is whether it will remain elevated during this rebound. A continued rise in ADX would support the notion of a directional market moving forward.
Volume spiked during the recent selloff, indicating panic selling or forced liquidations. Notably, volume has remained relatively strong during the recovery, lending credibility to the price rebound. When volume supports a bounce, it often signals more than just a temporary correction — possibly a true reversal — and merits continued observation.
| Level | Price | Explanation |
|---|---|---|
| Short-Term Resistance | $119,600 | Recent local high near 20EMA zone |
| Mid-Term Target | $120,800 | Previous support turned resistance |
| Psychological Level | $122,000 | Multiple wick rejections occurred here |
| Short-Term Support | $117,500 | Lower boundary of the rebound zone |
| Mid-Term Support | $116,000 | High volume zone and previous swing low |
While BTC/USD is rebounding from a clear support area, it has yet to break through key resistance levels, including the 20EMA. Based on this, the following strategies may be considered:
From a fundamental perspective, upcoming U.S. inflation data and FOMC minutes could add volatility, making it crucial to pair technical setups with macroeconomic awareness and risk management.
BTC/USD is showing early signs of a bottom, with improving technical conditions supporting a potential reversal. Strengthening momentum indicators, a potential MACD crossover, and RSI recovery suggest a shift toward bullishness.
Still, traders should remain cautious until critical resistance zones are broken decisively. Maintaining discipline with risk controls and adapting to ongoing sentiment and structure changes on the chart are vital for effective trading decisions.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making trading decisions.
This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. The analyses and strategies mentioned are based on past data and current market conditions, and may be subject to change in the future. When making investment decisions, always conduct your own research and consult a professional if necessary.
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