BTC/USD Technical Analysis (1-Hour Chart): Rebound Near $105,800—A Sign of Short-Term Trend Reversal?

Market Context and Current Price Movement

As of June 18, 2025, BTC/USD (Bitcoin/US Dollar) experienced short-term selling pressure, dropping to the $104,000 range. However, it has since shown signs of stabilization, rebounding to around $105,800. In this article, we delve into the current market situation based on technical analysis of the 1-hour chart and highlight key points to watch going forward.

Moving Average Analysis: Signs of a Rebound from Downtrend

On the chart, the price is still below both the 200-period moving average (red line) and the 50-period moving average (blue line). This generally indicates a downtrend, but the price is approaching the short-term moving average, suggesting weakening bearish momentum. If the short-term MA begins to act as support, a temporary trend reversal may come into view.

Moving averages are a useful technical indicator for visually gauging trend direction and strength. While a crossover (golden or death cross) has yet to occur, the emergence of consecutive bullish candles is worth noting.

MACD: Signal of a Possible Bottom?

The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is an indicator that shows trend direction and potential turning points. Currently, the MACD line (yellow) is approaching the signal line (red) from below. A crossover would generate a buy signal. The MACD histogram is also narrowing on the negative side, suggesting a potential bottom from an MACD perspective.

However, more time may be needed for confirmation, and entering prematurely carries risk. It’s important to use this in conjunction with other indicators for a comprehensive view.

ADX: Lack of Clear Trend

The ADX (Average Directional Index) measures the strength of a trend. Currently ranging between 20 and 25, it indicates a lack of clear direction—suggesting the market is either in a range or in a consolidation phase.

Once ADX rises above 30, it signals a strong trend (either bullish or bearish). Therefore, watching ADX in the coming sessions will be crucial.

Volume Dynamics and Price Action

During the sharp drop in the early hours of June 18, trading volume surged—possibly due to panic selling and stop-loss triggers. During the rebound, volume has declined, indicating that buyers are primarily bargain hunters.

For the rebound to continue meaningfully, increased volume will be essential. A breakout above $106,000 accompanied by volume could confirm a reliable bullish phase.

Support and Resistance Levels

Strategy and Risk Management: A Trader’s Perspective

The current chart setup could represent either an early rebound or a potential short-selling opportunity. For a clear technical trend reversal, we’d need a confirmed breakout above $106,000, a MACD golden cross, and an ADX reading above 30.

Given the current uncertainty, a “wait and see” strategy may be prudent. For those considering a short-term long position, a stop-loss below $104,000 and a take-profit above $107,000 would offer a favorable risk-reward structure.

Conclusion: BTC/USD Outlook

BTC/USD appears to have stabilized near $105,800, but a confirmed trend reversal has not yet materialized. To better assess the next moves, traders should monitor not just MACD and ADX, but also momentum and volume trends closely.

For traders, the key decision points are the $106,000 resistance and the psychological $107,500 level above. Cautious entries combined with sound risk management will be essential in navigating this possible turning point.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All investment decisions should be made at your own discretion and risk.

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