BTC/USD Technical Analysis (1-Hour Chart): Aiming to Break Through $120,000 – Is the Bullish Structure Continuing?

Market Background and Current Price Movement

As of July 18, 2025, BTC/USD (Bitcoin/US Dollar) is showing a steady upward trend on the 1-hour chart, approaching the key milestone of $120,000. In recent days, the pair has formed a gradual uptrend supported by consistent buying demand, with multiple technical analysis indicators suggesting continued bullish momentum.

This article provides a comprehensive analysis from the perspective of candlestick patterns, moving averages (MA), MACD, ADX, and volume. It also highlights potential support and resistance levels and strategic responses traders should consider.

Chart analysis by cTrader platform

Moving Averages: What the Widening Gap Between 20EMA and 200SMA Indicates

On the chart, both the short-term moving average (likely the 20EMA) and the long-term moving average (200SMA) are trending upward, with the current candlestick positioned above both. This structure is a typical sign of an uptrend, and the widening gap between the 20EMA and 200SMA is evidence of accelerating bullish momentum.

The possibility of a "golden cross" (short-term MA crossing above long-term MA), a sign of a trend reversal, is also coming into view, reinforcing the likelihood of a continued bullish trend. Moving averages are highly effective tools for trend identification.

MACD: Continued Upward Momentum from Reversal Signal

The MACD at the bottom of the chart shows the MACD line (yellow) crossing above the signal line (red), with the histogram expanding above the zero line. This suggests renewed buying momentum and strong price support.

During the previous down phase, a temporary crossover was observed, but the price quickly rebounded—highlighting how “false signals” can occur in strong trends. The MACD is one of the most reliable indicators for evaluating momentum and trend reversals.

ADX: Quantifying Trend Strength

The ADX (green line) is currently around 60, indicating a strong ongoing trend. Generally, an ADX above 25 suggests a clear trend, and above 40, a very strong trend.

This value supports the assessment that BTC/USD is in a buyer-dominated environment. While short-term pullbacks may occur, the overall trend remains firmly upward.

Volume and Candlestick Structure: A Reliable Uptrend

Of note is the increase in trading volume alongside price gains. Especially during recent bullish candles, volume has expanded in parallel, indicating a “rally with volume.”

Typically, breakouts without volume often result in “fakeouts,” whereas those with volume are considered “genuine breakouts.” From this perspective, the current uptrend appears to be credible.

Support and Resistance Levels

Future Scenarios and Strategy: How Should Traders Respond?

Currently, BTC/USD is technically in a strong bullish structure, supported by “rising with volume,” a “bullish moving average structure,” and “renewed momentum.”

However, short-term profit-taking near $120,200 or temporary declines cannot be ruled out. If pullbacks occur, the zone between $118,500 and $117,000 becomes a strategic entry point for dip buyers.

Overall, with momentum accelerating again, rising volume, and solid technical backing, a strategy that anticipates further gains in BTC/USD appears appropriate.

Summary: Three Key Points Traders Should Watch

• ① 20EMA and 200SMA both rising – indicating continued bullish trend
• ② MACD and ADX signals support buyer dominance
• ③ Rising volume confirms breakout reliability

The $120,200 level is now the focus. If broken, BTC/USD could rise toward $121,500. Even if there’s a pullback, a dip-buying strategy remains valid.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please make trading decisions at your own discretion and risk.

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