BTC/USD Technical Analysis (1-Hour Chart): Approaching $120,000 – Will the Bullish Trend Continue?

Market Background and Current Price Movement

As of July 28, 2025, BTC/USD (Bitcoin/US Dollar) is trading around $119,610 on the 1-hour chart, approaching the psychological milestone of $120,000. This level has previously acted as a key resistance zone, and a breakout here could significantly impact market sentiment.

This article uses key methods of technical analysis to evaluate short- to medium-term price movement. In particular, we will analyze indicators such as MACD, ADX, volume, and moving averages to provide insight that can assist in forming a trading strategy.

Moving Averages: Golden Cross Indicates Trend Reversal

On the 1-hour chart, the price is above both the short-term 20EMA (blue) and long-term 200SMA (red). This setup forms a structure very close to a "Golden Cross" in moving average theory, suggesting a potential trend reversal.

In previous downtrends, the 20EMA acted as resistance, but in this rally, it has been decisively broken. This level is now likely to act as a support zone during future pullbacks. The fact that the price remains above the 200SMA also reinforces a continuation of the longer-term uptrend.

MACD Analysis: Continued Momentum Build-Up

The MACD is currently showing a "bullish crossover" where the MACD line stays above the signal line. The histogram is also expanding in positive territory, indicating that this price increase is supported by stable momentum, not just a temporary spike.

The upward slope of the MACD also suggests further upside potential. Historically, similar MACD behavior has often preceded sustained price increases, making it a scenario where maintaining long positions may be appropriate.

ADX: Objective Evaluation of Trend Strength

The ADX is currently near 30, strongly indicating the presence of a defined trend. In general, an ADX value above 25 signifies a trending market rather than a ranging one.

Combined with MACD and moving averages, this confirms that the current bullish phase is more likely a legitimate trend reversal rather than a short-term correction.

Volume Trend: Relationship Between Price and Volume

During the recent rally, volume spiked significantly alongside the price, which is a highly reliable technical signal known as a “volume-backed breakout.”

Volume reflects the conviction of market participants. When price makes new highs with increasing volume, it often suggests a genuine breakout driven by demand, supporting further continuation of the uptrend.

Support and Resistance Levels

Outlook and Key Points to Watch

From a technical perspective, BTC/USD is showing a strong bullish setup, and the key focus is whether it can decisively break above the $120,000 level. All indicators are aligning to support the bullish trend, and especially with both MACD and ADX rising simultaneously, buyer dominance appears likely to continue.

However, a temporary pullback may occur due to profit-taking at $120,000. In such a case, the $118,800–$117,000 zone may present a buying opportunity. If this support zone is broken, a deeper correction phase could begin, making it essential to monitor volume and indicator trends closely.

Conclusion: Building Short- to Mid-Term Strategy

BTC/USD is in a critical phase of transitioning into a confirmed uptrend. Key technical indicators are aligned, sending strong bullish signals. A breakout above $120,000 could significantly boost market sentiment and trigger further upside potential.

At the same time, the high volatility nature of the crypto market necessitates flexible trading strategies focused on buying pullbacks and observing key support levels. Continuous monitoring of momentum and trend indicators will be key to effective risk and profit management.

Disclaimer: This content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All trading decisions should be made at your own discretion and risk.

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