BTC/USD Technical Analysis (1-Hour Chart): Signs of Correction Ending? Watching for a Short-Term Rebound

Market Background and Current Price Action

As of June 19, 2025, BTC/USD (Bitcoin/US Dollar) has shown signs of bottoming out on the 1-hour chart after a short-term correction. The price fell close to $102,500 late the previous night but has since rebounded and is now hovering around the $104,500 level. Recently, candlestick patterns have shown higher lows, suggesting a technical recovery is gaining momentum.

This analysis is based on technical analysis, evaluating key indicators such as moving averages, MACD, ADX, and momentum to assess the likelihood of a trend reversal.

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Moving Average Analysis: Flat EMA Reflects Range-Bound Movement

On the chart, the short-term 20 EMA (blue line) has flattened, with the price fluctuating just above and below it. Meanwhile, the long-term 200 SMA (red line) is clearly downward-sloping, indicating a bearish long-term trend. The narrowing gap between the 20 EMA and 200 SMA suggests a potential trend change if the 20 EMA turns upward.

Currently, the price is moving between the moving averages, presenting both breakout opportunities and fakeout risks. Watching the crosses and angles of these moving averages may offer valuable entry and exit signals. For more details, refer to the moving average section on Wikipedia.

MACD: Recovery Signal After Overselling

The MACD indicator shows the MACD line (yellow) crossing above the signal line (red) from below, forming a potential bullish crossover. The histogram is also nearing the zero line from negative territory, suggesting a recovery from oversold conditions.

Such a MACD crossover has historically worked well in signaling short-term reversals and can serve as a strong entry trigger for traders. It's a key moment to watch for the beginning of a trend shift.

ADX Analysis: Lack of Strong Trend Direction

The ADX, which measures trend strength, remains below 25, indicating the market currently lacks a clear directional trend. This reflects a "sideways" or range-bound market, where trading strategies within the range tend to be more effective.

If the ADX rises above 30, it would signal the beginning of a clearer directional trend, offering traders an opportunity to shift towards breakout strategies.

Momentum: Turning Point or Temporary Rebound?

From a momentum perspective, the peak selling pressure may have already passed. If the price can break through the $105,000 level clearly, it could mark the beginning of a short-term bullish trend.

However, if this rebound fails to sustain, there's a risk the price may again test the $102,500 support level. Thus, cautious position management is crucial at this stage.

Volume and Price Action: Entry Signals in Rebound Phase

One key observation is the increase in trading volume following the price’s bottom at $102,500. This suggests a concentration of short-term long positions, indicating value buying at lower levels. As such, this zone may serve as a strong support base for future upward movements.

Support and Resistance Levels

Conclusion: Outlook and Trade Strategy

BTC/USD is showing temporary bottoming behavior on the 1-hour timeframe, though it still remains under the influence of a long-term downtrend. While the MACD crossover and volume uptick are positive signs, the low ADX and position below the 200 SMA suggest that a full bullish reversal has not yet materialized.

If the support zone between $104,000 and $102,500 holds, a breakout above $105,500 and toward $106,500 becomes a viable scenario. However, further volume confirmation is essential. Short-term traders may consider dip-buying strategies, while mid-term traders may benefit from waiting for a confirmed trend reversal.

Disclaimer: This analysis is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please conduct your own research before making any trading decisions.

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