BTC/USD Technical Analysis (1-Hour): Downside Pressure Near $111,800 — An In-Depth Examination of What’s Next

Market Background and Current Price Trends

As of August 29, 2025, BTC/USD (Bitcoin/US Dollar) is trading around $111,800 on the 1-hour chart. Recently, the upward move stalled near $112,800, and the pair shifted into a short-term decline. What makes this phase noteworthy is that the drop has been accompanied by increasing volume, raising concerns that this is not merely a correction but a potential transition into a sustained bearish trend.

In this article, we apply the methods of technical analysis and combine multiple indicators including moving averages, MACD, ADX, and trading volume to objectively interpret the market. This will help clarify the next key levels and strategies that traders should focus on.

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Moving Average Analysis: A Key Phase for Medium-Term Trend

The price is breaking below the 50-hour moving average (blue), signaling short-term bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the 200-hour moving average (red) sits near $111,000, which is likely to serve as a medium-term battleground. If the 200 SMA is decisively broken, the downtrend could intensify, potentially driving prices toward the psychological level of $110,000. Historically, the 200 SMA has played a critical role in shaping investor sentiment in Bitcoin markets, and once again, its support may determine the medium-term trend direction.

MACD Behavior: Clear Loss of Momentum

The MACD line has crossed below the signal line, and the histogram is expanding deeper into negative territory. This is a clear sign of strengthening selling pressure, confirming that bullish momentum has fully reversed to bearish. Importantly, this decline should not be seen as a simple range breakout but rather as a “reversal from momentum slowdown.” From a technical perspective, when the MACD stays in negative territory for extended periods, it often indicates a sustained bearish trend. Any rebounds in the short term are likely to be temporary, and a bullish reversal will require the MACD line to cross back above the signal line.

ADX: Confirming the Strength of the Trend

The ADX remains near 40, suggesting a strong and active trend. Generally, an ADX reading below 20 indicates a ranging market, while readings around 40 indicate a trending market with significant strength. Given the current downward bias, this reinforces the credibility of the ongoing bearish trend.

Volume and Price Relationship: Reflecting Selling Pressure

Trading volume has increased during the breakdown below $111,800, confirming the dominance of sellers. Such “volume-backed declines” often accelerate due to investor panic selling and cascading stop-loss triggers, providing strong evidence of further downside risks in the short term.

Support and Resistance Levels

Strategy Scenarios: Short- and Medium-Term Perspectives

In the short term, attention should be on whether $111,500 can hold as support. Failure to maintain this level would likely lead to a test of $110,800. For medium-term investors, the risk of breaking below $110,000 must be carefully monitored. A drop beneath this psychological threshold could widen losses, exposing downside targets around $108,500 to $107,000.

On the other hand, for bulls to regain control, BTC/USD must first break above $112,800 and then decisively clear $113,500. If achieved, this could pave the way for a new uptrend targeting $115,000.

Conclusion: Key Points for Traders

BTC/USD has shifted into a short-term bearish phase, with the breakdown below $111,800 drawing close attention. The decline in momentum, the drop below moving averages, the elevated ADX, and the rise in trading volume together confirm the strength of the bearish trend.

For short-term traders, confirming a rebound at $111,500 while considering sell-on-rally strategies appears valid. In the medium term, whether the 200 SMA holds or breaks will be the key inflection point, with $110,000 as the next critical level. Conversely, a bullish scenario requires decisive breakouts above $112,800 and $113,500.

Traders should remain alert to these support and resistance levels and prioritize disciplined risk management.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All investment decisions should be made at your own responsibility.

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