As of July 14, 2025, BTC/USD (Bitcoin/US Dollar) is approaching a key resistance level around $119,681 on the 1-hour chart. This level is just below the psychological barrier of $120,000, a price closely watched by many traders. The latest price action, beginning with a sharp upward spike in the late hours of July 11, has developed into a sustained upward wave, suggesting a strong continuation of the bullish trend rather than a reversal.
This analysis evaluates the outlook based on technical analysis, focusing on moving averages, MACD, ADX, volume, and support/resistance levels.
Both the short-term (blue line) and long-term (red line) moving averages are clearly trending upward, indicating a stable and strong uptrend. In particular, the 20EMA has crossed above the 50EMA and 200SMA, which is typically a bullish signal and resembles a "golden cross" pattern, reinforcing the continuation of the upward trend.
The price has remained above the moving averages for an extended period, and even during pullbacks, the moving averages have acted as dynamic support. This suggests that the current price level is not overheated, but rather part of a steady bullish progression.
The MACD line (orange) remains above the signal line (red), and the histogram continues to hold in positive territory. This is a classic buy signal in MACD analysis, indicating strong buying pressure.
Notably, there has been no significant contraction in the MACD histogram, which usually signals weakening momentum. Instead, the histogram remains elevated, confirming persistent momentum in the current uptrend.
The ADX is hovering near the 60 level, a strong indication of a well-established trend. In general, an ADX reading above 25 signals a trend, while readings between 40 and 60 reflect a very strong one.
Under these conditions, counter-trend strategies carry higher risk. Trend-following strategies, especially buying on pullbacks, are considered more effective. High ADX levels also suggest increased volatility, so proper risk-reward management is essential.
A noticeable surge in trading volume was observed during the price rally on July 11. The increase in volume accompanying the price breakout enhances its credibility, indicating that this move is driven by genuine market participation rather than speculative spikes.
| Level | Price | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Short-term Resistance | $119,681 | Recent local high, potential for heavy selling pressure |
| Next Target | $120,000 | Psychological round number, possible profit-taking zone |
| Short-term Support | $117,500 | Upper range of recent consolidation, likely buy zone |
| Medium-term Support | $115,000 | Confluence with 50EMA, strong potential support area |
BTC/USD is currently in a very strong uptrend, and whether it can decisively break the $120,000 mark will be the key focus in the short term. A breakout with significant volume could open the path to the next target between $122,000 and $125,000.
Conversely, if profit-taking intensifies near $120,000, temporary pullbacks may occur. In that case, the $117,500 or $115,000 zones are considered strong entry points for buying on dips. The $115,000 level, in particular, aligns with the 200SMA, making it a structurally significant support area.
Currently, a trend-following strategy is recommended, as long as indicators like MACD and ADX continue to confirm bullish momentum.
Based on technical analysis, BTC/USD is showing strong momentum and a well-supported uptrend. All key indicators—MACD, ADX, moving averages, and volume—point to further upside potential.
Traders should keep a close eye on the $120,000 psychological level and be prepared with a buy-the-dip strategy around $117,500 to $115,000. This phase could offer lucrative opportunities for both short- and medium-term trading.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please make trading decisions at your own discretion.
This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. The analyses and strategies mentioned are based on past data and current market conditions, and may be subject to change in the future. When making investment decisions, always conduct your own research and consult a professional if necessary.
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