On August 12, 2025, BTC/USD (Bitcoin/USD) rose to just below $120,000 on the 1-hour chart before entering a short-term pullback, and is currently trading around $119,960. The uptrend that began in early August has been driven by positive news surrounding Bitcoin ETFs, a global shift toward risk-on sentiment, and expectations that U.S. monetary policy will remain on hold, among other factors.
Historically, Bitcoin has shown increased trading activity near round-number levels. The current $120,000 mark is also being closely watched by many market participants as a psychological threshold, and price action around this level will be critical in determining the next market direction.
On the current 1-hour chart, the short-term moving average (50 EMA, blue) is clearly above the long-term moving average (200 SMA, red), with price trading above both. This is a classic uptrend pattern, and the “Golden Cross” that formed around August 8 acted as a buy signal. The slope of the moving averages remains upward, keeping the medium-term bullish bias intact.
The MACD remains in positive territory, with the MACD line above the signal line, though the gap is narrowing. The histogram has also peaked, suggesting that short-term buying momentum may be slowing. However, the distance from the zero line is still sufficient to maintain an overall bullish bias. If MACD expansion resumes, the probability of the next upward wave increases.
The ADX remains near 50, indicating a strong prevailing trend in the market. Generally, an ADX above 25 is considered a trending market; a reading of 50 signifies a particularly strong trend. Whether this level can be maintained will be key to the continuation of the trend.
The surge in volume as BTC approached $120,000 reflects strong buying pressure. The subsequent decrease in volume suggests the market has entered a “consolidation phase” as it searches for direction. A renewed breakout above $120,000 accompanied by higher volume would be considered a highly reliable signal, potentially opening up further upside.
| Level | Price | Meaning / Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Short-term Resistance | $120,500 | Recent swing high, psychological threshold |
| Next Target | $122,000 | August high zone round number |
| Short-term Support | $118,700 | Near 50 EMA, potential pullback buy zone |
| Medium-term Support | $117,000 | Near 200 SMA, previous swing low |
In the short term, holding support near $118,700 is crucial. If a rebound is confirmed at this level, BTC could retest $120,000, and with increased volume, could target $120,500 and $122,000. On the other hand, a break below this support could see a decline toward $117,000.
In the medium term, as long as the 200 SMA maintains its upward slope, a bullish market driven by dip buying is likely to continue. Positive ETF-related news or further institutional adoption could push BTC beyond $125,000. However, caution is warranted regarding U.S. monetary policy shifts or a global risk-off sentiment.
Bitcoin prices are influenced not only by technicals but also by fundamental factors. In particular, U.S. Federal Reserve policy announcements, U.S. CPI, and employment data are key market-moving indicators. Cryptocurrency regulations and geopolitical risks also play significant roles in shaping investor sentiment.
| Date | Event | Market Expectation |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 13 | U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) | +3.2% YoY |
| Aug 14 | U.S. Retail Sales | +0.4% MoM |
| Aug 15 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — |
BTC/USD continues to battle at historic highs. Combining technical indicators with fundamental analysis is key to maximizing profit opportunities.
Disclaimer: This content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research.
This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. The analyses and strategies mentioned are based on past data and current market conditions, and may be subject to change in the future. When making investment decisions, always conduct your own research and consult a professional if necessary.
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