As of August 26, 2025, BTC/USD (Bitcoin/US Dollar) has clearly broken below the key psychological level of $110,000, triggering a short-term bearish sentiment across the market. This movement appears to be influenced by a combination of macro-fundamental factors, including a stronger U.S. dollar and shifting interest rate expectations.
This analysis is based on technical analysis, examining moving averages (MA), MACD, ADX, volume, and candlestick patterns to assess potential future price developments.
On the chart, the 50EMA (blue) is positioned below the 200SMA (red), forming a typical “death cross” pattern. This technical setup indicates weakening short-term momentum relative to the long-term trend and supports the continuation of bearish pressure.
Both moving averages are also sloping downward, confirming the directional bias. For a detailed explanation of moving averages, you can refer to this Wikipedia article.
The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is a key momentum indicator, and it is currently trading below the signal line. This setup reflects strengthening bearish momentum, with the histogram expanding in negative territory.
In the short term, the wide gap between the MACD line and signal line suggests that the downtrend has not yet reached a point of consolidation. You can read more about MACD and its structure on Wikipedia.
The ADX (Average Directional Index) is currently holding near 30, which indicates a clearly trending market. In particular, the -DI being significantly higher than the +DI confirms the dominance of bearish pressure.
Since an ADX reading above 25 typically signals a strong trend, this figure supports the continuation of the downward move in the short term.
A notable surge in volume during the drop toward the $109,000 level should not be overlooked. This is a “breakdown accompanied by volume,” indicating that the move is not mere noise but may be a genuine trend continuation.
When a range break or key level is breached with rising volume, it lends credibility to the move and suggests sustainable price action.
Currently, the candlesticks show a mix of successive bearish candles and small lower-wick bullish candles. This combination reflects strong selling pressure amid occasional short-term buying attempts.
The appearance of lower wicks near the $109,000 level may suggest a potential for “technical rebound,” making this level a point of interest for short-term traders looking for reversal signs.
There is no clear divergence on the current chart, but if a structure emerges where “price makes new lows while the MACD trends upward,” it would be an early signal of a possible reversal.
MACD divergence is often watched by traders as an early clue for potential trend changes.
| Level | Price | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Short-Term Resistance | $111,200 | Near 50EMA, recent recovery high |
| Mid-Term Resistance | $113,000 | 200SMA level, multiple historical rejection points |
| Short-Term Support | $109,000 | Current local support zone, possible rebound area |
| Next Support | $107,500 | Past high-volume node, key demand area |
The current BTC/USD trend remains bearish according to several key indicators (MA, MACD, ADX, volume). For now, cautious sell-on-rally strategies remain the most logical.
That said, should the $109,000 level hold firmly, a technical rebound is not out of the question. Precise entry levels and stop-loss strategies are essential.
Overall, technical analysis helps uncover both directional bias and trader psychology. Entry decisions should wait for confluence of signals to increase trade quality and reduce noise.
Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Always conduct your own due diligence and manage risk responsibly before making any trading decisions.
This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. The analyses and strategies mentioned are based on past data and current market conditions, and may be subject to change in the future. When making investment decisions, always conduct your own research and consult a professional if necessary.
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