As of July 8, 2025, BTC/USD (Bitcoin/US Dollar) shows signs of a rebound on the 1-hour chart following a recent downtrend. The price has recovered to the $108,000 range, fluctuating around the 20EMA and 50SMA levels. This analysis delves into the upcoming scenarios and key levels from the perspective of technical analysis.
This analysis is based on charts displayed on the cTrader platform.
On the chart, the short-term 20EMA (blue line) and the medium-term 50SMA (yellow line) are converging around $108,300, signaling a slowdown in directional movement. Meanwhile, the long-term 200SMA (red line) is moving sideways around $107,800, acting as a solid support level.
Such convergence of moving averages often indicates "volatility compression" or "energy accumulation," which may precede a breakout. A key short-term factor will be whether the price can decisively break above the 50SMA again.
The MACD indicator below shows the MACD line (red) converging with the signal line (yellow), hovering near the zero line. This suggests a decrease in short-term momentum and a potential start of a trend reversal.
The histogram is also recovering from negative to neutral territory, indicating the downward momentum is easing. However, since no clear crossover has occurred yet, it’s premature to confirm a bullish reversal. The next 1–2 hours of price action will be critical.
The ADX (green line) is currently between 30 and 40, indicating a moderate trend without strong direction. As a momentum indicator, an uptick in ADX is often seen as a precursor to large price movements, making it worth watching for breakout signals.
While the price is rebounding, the trading volume remains limited, and a clear “volume-backed breakout” has not been observed. Historically, such quiet phases have often preceded sudden surges, so caution is warranted.
If volume spikes as the price breaks above $108,500, it could serve as a strong confirmation of a trend reversal.
| Level | Price | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Short-Term Resistance | $108,500 | Near 50SMA and prior highs |
| Next Target | $109,000 | Psychological level, resistance area from late June |
| Short-Term Support | $107,800 | Near 200SMA and recent rebound zone |
| Medium-Term Support | $107,000 | Low marked by multiple candlestick wicks |
BTC/USD is showing firmness around the $108,000 level, but stronger confirmation is still needed to establish a solid trend. With converging moving averages, MACD momentum shifts, and low ADX readings, this could be the “calm before the storm.”
Going forward, attention should be on whether the price breaks above $108,500 or holds above $107,800. A breakout could target $109,000, while a breakdown may see the price fall to $107,000. Traders should closely monitor indicators and candlestick behavior.
For short-term traders, early detection of momentum shifts in indicators like MACD and ADX will be key for entry and exit decisions.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. Please make all investment decisions at your own discretion.
This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. The analyses and strategies mentioned are based on past data and current market conditions, and may be subject to change in the future. When making investment decisions, always conduct your own research and consult a professional if necessary.
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