As of June 20, 2025, BTC/USD (Bitcoin/US Dollar) has been fluctuating within the $104,200–$104,800 range over the past 24 hours, with traders trying to determine the next direction. Based on the 1-hour chart, the short-term trend appears unclear, and multiple technical indicators suggest the possibility of a turning point.
This article conducts a multi-faceted examination using technical analysis, including moving averages, MACD, ADX, and volume analysis, to forecast future developments.
The blue line on the chart represents the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (200EMA), with the current price moving just below it. The price has been repeatedly rejected at this level, confirming the 200EMA as a strong resistance.
The slope of the moving average is downward, indicating a continued short-term downtrend. However, if the price breaks above this line again, it could signal a bullish momentum shift.
The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) shows the MACD line (yellow) slightly above the signal line (red), indicating the early stage of a buy signal. This is a classic sign of momentum reversal according to the MACD indicator.
The histogram is also approaching the zero line from negative territory, suggesting increasing buying pressure over the next few hours. However, unless the histogram continues to rise, a full trend reversal cannot be confirmed.
The ADX (Average Directional Index) remains relatively high around 40, but the +DI and −DI lines are overlapping, indicating the lack of a clear trend.
In such situations, it is crucial to watch not only momentum but also changes in volume and fundamental factors. Even with a high ADX, the risk of a fakeout increases if there is no clear dominance between the DMI lines.
Looking at the volume bars at the bottom of the chart, the volume during bullish candles remains relatively low, indicating a lack of "energy" needed for a breakout.
To break through the strong resistance at $104,800, a sharp increase in supporting volume is essential. If volume accompanies any upward movement, the push toward higher levels could accelerate.
| Level | Price | Significance & Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Short-term Resistance | $104,800 | 200EMA and recent high zone |
| Next Target | $105,200 | Previous rebound zone, psychological level |
| Short-term Support | $104,200 | Recent rebound point, long lower wick zone |
| Medium-term Support | $103,800 | Range bottom and historical support zone |
BTC/USD is currently stalling just below the strong resistance at $104,800, but MACD and momentum indicators are showing signs of recovery. In the short term, whether the price can clearly break above $104,800 will be a key turning point in defining the next trend phase.
On the other hand, attempting a breakout without sufficient volume risks a fakeout, so attention must also be paid to the $104,200–$103,800 support zone.
Combining technical analysis with fundamental factors such as economic indicators and interest rate trends is crucial for adjusting strategies and achieving long-term success.
※Disclaimer: This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please make your final trading decisions at your own discretion.
This article is part of the FIXIO Markets technical analysis series.
It is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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