On June 3, 2025, BTC/USD (Bitcoin/US Dollar) shows a clear downtrend on the 1-hour chart. The price is trading around approximately $105,651, with a slight rebound observed after a sharp drop. This analysis attempts to forecast the short-term price movement using key technical analysis indicators.
The blue line on the chart represents the 50-period moving average (MA50), and the red line is the 200-period moving average (MA200). Currently, a death cross is forming where the MA50 crosses below the MA200, which is considered a signal of a short- to medium-term bearish trend. Furthermore, the price is clearly below both moving averages, indicating weak buying pressure and an environment prone to further downward pressure.
Moving averages (MA) are indicators showing the average price over a certain past period and are widely used to identify trend direction.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is an important indicator that signals trend strength and turning points. On the chart, the MACD line (yellow) is significantly below the signal line (red), and the histogram remains in negative territory, indicating strong selling momentum. However, recent data show the histogram shrinking and the MACD line approaching the signal line, suggesting a decrease in selling pressure and a potential short-term buying rebound.
See also the detailed explanation of MACD.
ADX measures trend strength, with values above 25 indicating a strong trend. Currently, it is fluctuating around 20–25, meaning the trend has not completely faded. This implies that the downtrend still has momentum and that the risk of continued decline remains rather than just a temporary correction.
The volume surge around the sharp drop near 9:40 indicates strong selling pressure and active market participant selling. Conversely, the volume during the subsequent price rebound is subdued, showing limited buying momentum. This “volume-accompanied decline” is technically important and suggests the possibility of a continued downtrend.
| Level | Price | Meaning / Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Short-term Resistance | Approx. $106,000 | Price range near MA50, often acting as an upper limit for rebounds |
| Next Strong Resistance | Approx. $106,200 | Position of MA200, potentially acting as a barrier on the way up |
| Short-term Support | Approx. $105,400 | Recent low area where buying on dips is expected |
| Mid-term Support | Approx. $105,000 | Psychological threshold and past rebound zone |
BTC/USD is currently in a clear bearish trend, but short-term rebound signals are visible from changes in MACD and volume. Traders should closely watch the reaction around the short-term support at about $105,400. If a rebound is confirmed, it may present a short-term buying opportunity on dips.
However, if the price fails to break above the resistance zone between $106,000 and $106,200, there is a high risk of returning to the downtrend, so cautious action is advised. Continuously monitor the movements of trend strength indicators like ADX and MACD as well as changes in momentum indicators, and manage risk thoroughly.
※Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please conduct your own thorough research and judgment.
This article offers a detailed technical analysis of the BTC/USD pair on the 1-hour chart, focusing on key indicators such as MA50, MA200, MACD, ADX, and trading volume. It aims to help readers understand the current trend, crucial support and resistance levels, and potential reversal signals to assist short-term trading decisions. The content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Superior trade execution & trading conditions with the NDD method.
The online FX industry provides a platform for investors worldwide to engage in the buying and selling.
Subscribe to our daily newsletter and get the best forex trading information and markets status updates
Trade within minutes!
Comment (0)