BTC/USD Technical Analysis (1-Hour Chart): Rebound After Sharp Drop—Will Resistance Break?

Market Context and Current Price Action

On June 23, 2025, the cryptocurrency market is once again showing significant movement. In particular, BTC/USD (Bitcoin/US Dollar) experienced a sharp decline on the 1-hour chart, followed by a strong rebound from below the $100,000 mark. The current price is hovering near the resistance level at $101,267, and whether it can break above this level will likely dictate the market’s next direction.

This article applies technical analysis to examine Bitcoin’s price movement using multiple indicators, including moving averages, MACD, ADX, and trading volume, to highlight key points for future monitoring.

Chart provided by cTrader platform

Moving Average Analysis: MA20 and MA200 Signal Trend Direction

Examining the moving averages displayed on the chart (short-term: blue line, long-term: red line), the price is clearly trading below both. This configuration generally suggests a “continuation of the downtrend.” Even if there is a short-term rebound, the price may fall again, pressured by the higher moving averages. Caution is advised for potential pullback selling.

In such cases, it's particularly important to watch the slope of the 200SMA (long-term moving average). The chart currently shows a flat to downward trend, suggesting that a full trend reversal has not yet occurred.

MACD Behavior: Identifying Momentum Shifts

The MACD, or Moving Average Convergence Divergence, visualizes both trend and momentum. In the current chart, the MACD line remains below the signal line, indicating that bearish momentum is still in play.

However, the narrowing of the negative histogram bars suggests that selling pressure may be easing. This could be an early sign of a short-term correction or buyback opportunity. Traders should keep a close eye on any MACD crossover signals.

ADX: Measuring Trend Strength

ADX (Average Directional Index) quantifies whether a market trend exists. On the current chart, the ADX peaked near 30 and has begun to decline, implying that a previously strong trend is losing momentum.

When the ADX is above 25, a trend is considered present. However, if it begins to slope downward, it could signal a potential end or reversal of the trend, making it a critical indicator to watch during rebounds.

Volume and Price Relationship: Is the Rebound Reliable?

Sudden increases in volume are important in evaluating the “conviction” behind price movements. In this rebound phase, volume expanded significantly during the decline and remained relatively high during the recovery. This suggests that there may be genuine buying interest beyond short-term profit-taking or position closures.

That said, the overall trend remains downward, and the possibility of a short-lived rebound cannot be ruled out. Whether volume continues to rise will be a key factor in assessing the sustainability of this move.

Support and Resistance Levels

Conclusion: Strategy and Key Takeaways

BTC/USD has seen a temporary sentiment recovery following a bounce from below $100,000, but from a technical standpoint, caution is still warranted. Momentum indicators such as MACD and ADX do not yet confirm a full trend reversal. The key lies in whether the price can break above the resistance zone between $101,267 and $103,000.

If downside risks reemerge, the support zones at $99,000 and $97,500 will become important defense lines. Market sentiment could shift significantly depending on the reaction around these levels. Strategically, buying on pullbacks after confirmation of continued rebound or contrarian selling near resistance are both valid approaches.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All trading decisions should be made with proper risk management and at your own discretion.

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