As of June 13, 2025, the BTC/USD (Bitcoin/US Dollar) 1-hour chart shows a sharp drop to the $104,200 level. Although there has been a slight rebound, the market remains in a downtrend. From the perspective of technical analysis, we will comprehensively examine moving averages, volume, momentum, and key support/resistance levels to discuss the outlook.
Using the cTrader platform
On the chart, both the short-term moving average (20EMA, blue) and long-term moving average (200SMA, red) are clearly pointing downward, and the price is moving below both MAs. This is a typical sign of a downtrend. Check whether a crossover of the moving averages has occurred. In particular, a “death cross” where the short-term MA crosses below the long-term MA often signals a continued downtrend.
There was a significant increase in volume during the sharp drop, indicating a concentration of "panic selling" or "stop-loss" activity. In the subsequent rebound, volume has tended to decrease, suggesting that buying momentum remains limited. Such volume movement reflects market sentiment and positioning. The relationship between volume and price movement is also a key point in analysis, as seen in volume analysis.
Looking at momentum indicators like MACD and RSI, the MACD remains in negative territory and the RSI is hovering around 30–40. This is approaching an oversold signal, but there is not yet a clear reversal point. If we see a golden cross on the MACD or a rebound in the RSI, attention will turn to the possibility of a temporary rebound.
If the ADX (Average Directional Index) remains above 25, it indicates a strong trend. Currently, a high ADX level suggests the downtrend is dominant. For details about the ADX, see here.
| Level | Price | Basis / Explanation |
|---|---|---|
| Short-term Resistance | $105,000 | Near the 20EMA, recent support turned resistance |
| Mid-term Resistance | $107,000 | At the 200SMA, previous range upper bound |
| Short-term Support | $103,000 | Post-crash low, rebound point |
| Downside Target | $101,000 | Psychological level, previous high-volume zone |
In addition to technicals, the Bitcoin market is also greatly affected by economic indicators and macro news. Events such as the FOMC, US CPI releases, and regulatory news can cause sudden price movements, so always keep an eye on the latest information. For a general overview of market-moving factors, investment basics are also useful.
BTC/USD is currently in a continued downtrend, but in the short term, the $103,000 support is being watched closely. If this level breaks, there is a risk of further decline toward the psychological $101,000 area. Conversely, if the price breaks above $105,000, a short-covering rally or rebound could occur.
At present, "selling on rebounds" is the preferred strategy, but if there are signs of a reversal in volume or momentum (such as an MACD cross or RSI rebound), it’s important to be flexible and adjust strategies quickly. Be sure to refer to momentum indicators and make decisions based on objective data.
・BTC/USD remains in a downtrend on the 1-hour chart.
・After a sharp drop from $104,200, the $103,000 level is a key support.
・Rebounds may remain limited unless the price breaks through the $105,000–$107,000 resistance zone.
・Until signs of recovery in momentum and volume appear, "selling on rebounds" is favored, but quick action is necessary if a reversal occurs.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please make your own final investment decisions.
This article is based on publicly available chart information and reliable data, but please note that the market can fluctuate significantly due to unexpected news or economic indicators. Please make your final investment decisions carefully after confirming sufficient information on your own. This article is not intended to provide investment advice.
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