As of June 12, 2025, BTC/USD (Bitcoin/US Dollar) is hovering around the key $108,000 level on the 1-hour chart. Following a recent sharp decline, downward pressure remains, and despite attempts to rebound, a strong reversal has not materialized. In this environment, utilizing technical analysis to clarify the market's current position and potential scenarios is essential for traders' decision-making.
Analysis based on charts obtained from the cTrader platform
The chart shows a "death cross" where the 50-period moving average (blue) crosses below the 200-period moving average (yellow), which is a classic medium-term bearish signal. This cross is widely recognized among investors as a sign of trend reversal. With current prices below both moving averages, the market’s heaviness is evident. The downward slopes of both moving averages suggest that selling pressure remains dominant.
The MACD line and signal line are narrowing, with the histogram also weakening. This indicates a temporary slowdown in the current downtrend, but as values remain below the zero line, more momentum is needed for a genuine recovery. From a MACD perspective, traders should be more cautious about continued declines than expecting a reversal.
The ADX (Average Directional Index) is fluctuating around 40, indicating a strong and clear trend in the market. This high reading confirms the strength of momentum, suggesting the current decline is a sustainable trend rather than a mere correction. This will likely serve as a cue for "trend-following" strategies, especially for short-term traders.
The price is currently battling around the $108,000 support zone, which has been an important psychological level multiple times in the past. Around $109,200, a key resistance point, the moving averages converge, making it a strong sell zone on rebounds. If this level is broken, $110,000 becomes the next major target.
Increased volume during the sharp decline reflects the market’s strong reaction. In particular, the surge in volume from 22:00 on June 11 to 6:00 on June 12 suggests stop-losses being triggered and fresh selling pressure entering the market, reinforcing the reliability of the trend. If volume remains weak during future rebounds, those recoveries may be short-lived and easily overwhelmed by sellers.
| Level | Price | Meaning / Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Short-term Resistance | $109,200 | Confluence of moving averages and candlestick upper wicks |
| Medium-term Resistance | $110,000 | Psychological threshold and range upper limit |
| Short-term Support | $108,000 | Recent support line, multiple rebounds observed |
| Next Target | $107,500 | Previous swing low, further downside extension target |
BTC/USD is currently experiencing increased volatility on the 1-hour chart, making this a potential opportunity for short-term traders to look for sell-on-rebound strategies. In particular, the $109,000–$109,200 zone is noteworthy as a possible entry point. In the medium term, holding $108,000 is crucial; if this support fails, a further decline toward $107,500 becomes increasingly likely.
BTC/USD currently shows all technical analysis indicators—moving averages, MACD, and ADX—suggesting a continued downtrend. Volume is also increasing alongside the decline, reinforcing the bearish structure. However, if the $108,000 support holds firm, a temporary rebound is possible, so traders should proceed with caution.
For short-term trading, it is critical to assess risk/reward precisely, utilizing signals such as MACD crosses or ADX slowdowns as potential signs of reversal. From a medium-term perspective, regaining $110,000 would be a significant key for a trend reversal.
*Disclaimer: This content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Final decisions are your own responsibility.
※This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
※Please make any final trading decisions at your own responsibility.
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