BTC/USD Technical Analysis (1-Hour Chart): Bearish Momentum Continues Below $115,000 — What’s the Next Key Level?

Market Background and Current Price Action

On August 18, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) against the US Dollar (USD) broke below a key support level of $115,000. This move marks a downside breakout from the recent consolidation range, signaling a growing risk-off sentiment in the market. In this article, we will comprehensively evaluate future price trends using technical analysis, focusing on moving averages, MACD, ADX, volume patterns, and key support/resistance zones.

Moving Average Analysis: Clear Death Cross Between 50EMA and 200SMA

The current chart shows that the short-term 50EMA (blue) has already crossed below the long-term 200SMA (red), forming a "death cross." This is generally interpreted as a mid-term bearish signal, prompting many market participants to adopt a selling bias. Furthermore, most candlesticks are trading below both moving averages, reinforcing the bearish technical outlook. The downward slope of both MAs confirms ongoing selling pressure. For more details, refer to the explanation of moving averages.

MACD Behavior: Bearish Signal Backed by Selling Momentum

The MACD (bottom oscillator) line is positioned well below the signal line, and the histogram is expanding in negative territory. This indicates strong momentum behind the price decline, suggesting that the downtrend is not merely noise but may persist. The slope of the MACD and widening histogram can be seen as signs of accelerating bearish momentum, implying that even if a short-term rebound occurs, it may face renewed selling pressure.

ADX (Average Directional Index): Visualizing Trend Strength

The ADX is hovering around 30, which clearly confirms the presence of a directional trend in the market. ADX values above 25 typically suggest a trending market, and if the value continues rising, it implies strengthening trend momentum. The combination of bearish MACD and high ADX further validates the credibility of the current downtrend.

Volume Analysis: Surge in Sell Volume During Decline

Of particular note is the recent large bearish candle accompanied by a spike in trading volume. This pattern suggests potential "panic selling" or cascading stop-loss orders, reinforcing the idea that the drop is driven by more than just routine corrections. Such "high-volume selloffs" often indicate the presence of institutional players or large-scale liquidation, and even if prices temporarily bounce, upside potential may remain limited.

Support and Resistance Levels

Overall Assessment and Future Outlook: Strategic Takeaways

The BTC/USD 1-hour chart exhibits a clear bearish bias. The death cross of moving averages, confirmation by MACD and ADX, and increased volume during price drops all point toward a continuing downtrend. Going forward, whether BTC can hold the $115,000 support level will be critical. If it does, a short-covering rebound is possible. However, a clear break below this level may open the path to $113,000 or even the psychological barrier of $110,000.

Conversely, if a rebound does occur, the $118,500 to $120,000 area is likely to act as a strong resistance zone where selling pressure may resume. For short-term traders, capitalizing on volatility while applying strict risk management will be key to navigating this market.

Disclaimer: The contents of this article are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Please conduct your own research and invest responsibly.

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