As of late August 2025, BTC/USD (Bitcoin/US Dollar) is experiencing sharp short-term price fluctuations amid rising volatility across global financial markets. In addition to U.S. inflation indicators and expectations of interest rate cuts, ETF-related news is significantly influencing investor sentiment. Notably, institutional investor movements are directly reflected in the price of BTC.
In this context, careful analysis of price action and momentum on the 1-hour chart can provide valuable insights for the next strategic move. This report evaluates potential trend reversals and continuations from the perspective of technical analysis.
Upon examining the chart, several bearish candlesticks with long upper wicks have appeared following a sharp surge between August 27 and 28. This indicates heavy resistance at higher levels and strong selling pressure from profit-taking and pullbacks. The current price movement closely resembles a classic “bearish engulfing” pattern, suggesting short-term correction pressure.
The short-term moving average (20EMA) is still trending upward, but the candlesticks are positioned below it, signaling that the recent rebound lacks strength. Meanwhile, the long-term moving average (200SMA) remains flat to slightly downward, making the sustainability of an uptrend uncertain. Technically, this resembles a "false golden cross" pattern, requiring cautious attention.
The MACD line and signal line are converging, and the histogram is hovering near the zero line. This indicates weakening buying momentum, confirming that the recent rebound lacks follow-through. Although MACD is a lagging indicator, it remains a useful tool for visually identifying momentum shifts.
While ADX had previously risen above 50, it's now entering a downward phase, suggesting that the trend is gradually losing steam. The gap between DI+ (bulls) and DI− (bears) is also narrowing, indicating a market that is losing direction. The ADX serves as an important warning signal in such scenarios.
Volume increased during the upward move, but it has since decreased during the current pullback. This suggests that the recent drop is more of a “natural profit-taking correction” rather than a panic-driven selloff, which could hint at a possible rebound ahead.
According to Fibonacci retracement analysis from the recent high of $112,700 to the low of $111,000, the 38.2% level at $111,580 and the 50% level at $111,850 are acting as nearby resistance zones. A breakout above this zone may lead to a retest of the $112,200–$112,700 range.
| Level | Price Range | Rationale and Key Notes |
|---|---|---|
| First Resistance | $111,850 | 50% Fibonacci retracement, historical consolidation zone |
| Second Resistance | $112,700 | Recent high, area of multiple upper wicks |
| First Support | $111,000 | Recent bounce zone, high-volume area |
| Second Support | $110,000 | Location of the 200SMA, key psychological level |
BTC/USD often shows an inverse correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and the stock market—particularly the NASDAQ. Currently, the U.S. dollar is slightly weak, and the NASDAQ is moving sideways. This provides a modest upside potential for Bitcoin in the short term.
BTC/USD is currently at a crossroads after a recent surge and correction, with the market deciding between further rebound or exhaustion. While many technical indicators are showing neutral to bearish signals, the support at $111,000 remains a critical level that could sustain another upside move.
Key upcoming catalysts include:
Traders should continue monitoring volume, MACD/ADX behavior, and potential resistance breakouts to construct informed and adaptable strategies.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All trading decisions should be made at your own discretion and responsibility.
This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. The analyses and strategies mentioned are based on past data and current market conditions, and may be subject to change in the future. When making investment decisions, always conduct your own research and consult a professional if necessary.
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