As of July 4, 2025, BTC/USD (Bitcoin/US Dollar) continues to battle around the key $108,800 level on the 1-hour chart. Volatility has increased slightly in recent days, with buying and selling pressures evenly matched. This analysis will examine the current chart pattern, moving averages, momentum indicators, ADX, and volume from a technical analysis perspective to assess future developments.
The BTC/USD price currently sits near the 200-period moving average (blue), acting as short-term support. This moving average is closely watched by traders to assess trend direction. The slope is shifting from flat to slightly downward, signaling a potential shift into a consolidation or correction phase.
Recent candlestick formations show multiple long upper wicks and a lack of strong bullish candles, suggesting weakening buying pressure. Strong resistance is evident around $109,500–$109,700. If BTC/USD clearly breaks below $108,800, a short-term bearish trend may develop.
The MACD line has already crossed below the signal line, forming a clear dead cross, which is widely recognized as a sell signal. The histogram remains in negative territory, further suggesting weak momentum in the current market.
The ADX (Average Directional Index) is falling from the 40s into the 30s, showing a loss of trend strength. The DMI lines (+DI and -DI) are converging, indicating a balance between buying and selling forces. If ADX drops below 25, a transition to a range-bound market becomes increasingly likely.
Volume spiked briefly alongside candlestick changes but is now declining. Notably, selling volume increased during price drops, implying a shift to a "sell-driven" market. A break below support could intensify this bearish momentum.
| Level | Price | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Short-term Support | $108,800 | Near 200SMA, recent bounce point |
| Next Support | $108,200 | Late-June low, matches high volume zone |
| Short-term Resistance | $109,600 | Recent high with multiple upper wicks |
| Mid-term Resistance | $110,200 | Mid-June pivot level, psychological round number |
In the current BTC/USD market, whether $108,800 holds will likely determine the short-term trend. A rebound from this support could lead to another test of the $109,600–$110,200 resistance zone. However, weak momentum, a declining ADX, and the MACD dead cross all warrant caution.
In the short term, a buy-on-dip strategy toward $108,200 may be considered, or an entry after confirming a breakout rebound. From a fundamental standpoint, upcoming U.S. employment and inflation reports may influence price action significantly.
BTC/USD currently sits at a turning point, with most technical indicators pointing toward a corrective phase. The decline in momentum indicators and convergence of ADX suggest potential short-term instability.
Under these conditions, a reactive trading strategy is advisable — wait for price confirmation before entering positions. Clear stop-loss levels and monitoring volume trends will help mitigate risk and improve potential returns.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research and judgment when trading.
This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. The analyses and strategies mentioned are based on past data and current market conditions, and may be subject to change in the future. When making investment decisions, always conduct your own research and consult a professional if necessary.
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