BTC/USD Showing Signs of Sharp Reversal! A Drop Below $102,000 Could Bring $100,000 Into View

BTC/USD Analysis – Post-Rally Consolidation Phase, Break Below $102,000 is the Key

Overview (May 9, 2025)

During the Asian session on May 9, BTC/USD briefly rose to the $104,000 range, but the bullish momentum has weakened, and it is now undergoing a consolidation phase around $102,300. On the 1-hour chart, a clear uptrend is observed, but recent candlestick patterns and technical indicators suggest signs of slowing momentum and potential correction. By analyzing ADX and DMI behavior, volume changes, and moving average divergence, traders can better respond to future price movements.

Key Point 1: Medium-Term Bullish Trend Indicated by Moving Averages (MA)

The chart shows both the 50-hour MA (blue) and 200-hour MA (red) in an upward trajectory, indicating a continued bullish trend following a golden cross. Recently, the price has remained above the 50MA, which acts as support. However, consecutive candlesticks with upper wicks forming bearish patterns suggest strong selling pressure around $102,500–$103,000. Whether the $102,000 support holds will be crucial for the short-term trend continuation.

Key Point 2: ADX and DMI Indicating Momentum Shift

The ADX (yellow line), which measures trend strength, has peaked in recent hours and is now declining, suggesting the strong uptrend may be pausing. Additionally, the gap between +DI (green line) and −DI (red line) is narrowing, indicating weakening buying power and a shift toward a balance with sellers. If ADX falls below 0.25 again, this could signal a shift from “trend weakening” to a “range-bound or reversal” phase.

Key Point 3: Volume Surge Suggests Short-Term Caution

Volume has surged since the price exceeded $103,000, possibly indicating profit-taking or a short-term top formation. Bearish candles accompanied by high volume are considered reliable reversal signals. Combined with the failure to break recent highs, this raises caution for a short-term correction. A decisive break below $102,000 with volume could lead to a drop toward the psychological level of $100,000.

※Image source: cTrader platform

Outlook and Trading Strategy

The current BTC/USD market reflects a mix of “mid-to-long-term uptrend continuation” and “short-term correction phase.” Traders should watch the following technical levels when planning strategies:

• $102,000 Support Line: A clear break below this level increases the risk of a decline toward the psychological $100,000 level.
• $104,000 Breakout: A successful breakout would strengthen the momentum toward $105,000–$106,000.
• ADX Recovery: If ADX rises again, trend continuation will be confirmed, supporting a buy-on-dip strategy.

Example Trade Scenarios

Bearish Scenario (Targeting a Pullback)
Entry: Short after confirmation of a break below $102,000
Target: $100,000–$99,800
Stop Loss: Above $103,200 (do not allow a rebound to high)

Bullish Scenario (Buy on Dip)
Entry: Long entry after confirming a rebound near $102,000
Target: Retest of $104,000
Stop Loss: Below $101,500 (prepare for short-term downward breakout)

Conclusion:

BTC/USD remains within a mid-to-long-term uptrend, but signs of a short-term correction are increasing. With ADX declining, DMI convergence, and a volume spike, the $102,000 level is a crucial point that could determine future direction. Traders are advised to manage risk carefully and prepare strategies for both buy-on-dip and sell-on-rebound scenarios.

Disclaimer:

This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific financial instrument. All trading decisions should be made at your own discretion.
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