The Australian Dollar (AUD) gains strength as traders anticipate the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintaining interest rates in April. The AUD benefits from strong economic ties with China, but uncertainty surrounding US trade policies remains a potential risk.
The Australian Dollar has strengthened as investors expect the RBA to keep rates steady in April. After the first rate cut in four years this February, the central bank remains cautious about further adjustments. Economic stability and Chinese stimulus expectations have contributed to AUD's resilience.
Despite this support, AUD/USD faces challenges. The US Dollar (USD) has gained strength following positive economic data. The S&P Global US Services PMI surged to 54.3 in March, marking a three-month high. Additionally, hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have reinforced USD demand, exerting pressure on AUD/USD.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains stable around 104.30, reflecting the Greenback’s strength. Recent US PMI data shows a rebound in business activity, particularly in the service sector. The S&P Global US Composite PMI rose to 53.5 in March, indicating solid economic performance.
While the service sector has shown strong recovery, the US Manufacturing PMI declined to 49.8, missing market expectations. This mixed economic outlook leaves investors cautious, influencing currency market trends.
Investors are closely watching US President Donald Trump's upcoming tariff announcement on April 2. Trump has suggested that "a lot" of countries could receive exemptions, but details remain unclear. This uncertainty affects risk sentiment, impacting currencies like the Australian Dollar.
Trump's proposed tariffs on China-linked vessels have also fueled concerns. Increased trade tensions could disrupt global markets, influencing the AUD/USD pair. However, recent statements suggest a possible diplomatic approach, which could ease market anxiety.
AUD/USD is trading near 0.6290, showing a bearish bias within a descending channel. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, signaling continued downward pressure.
Key support levels:
0.6220: Lower boundary of the descending channel
0.6187: Seven-week low recorded on March 5
Resistance levels:
0.6308: Nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
0.6310: 50-day EMA
0.6320: Upper boundary of the descending channel
A breakout above resistance levels could shift momentum in favor of AUD, while a break below support may lead to further losses.
The Australian Dollar finds support as the RBA holds rates steady, but global uncertainties pose risks. Traders should monitor upcoming US economic data and trade policy developments for potential impacts on AUD/USD movements.
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The Australian Dollar gains strength as the RBA keeps interest rates steady. However, US economic data & trade policies may impact AUD/USD.
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