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Australian Dollar Gains Strength as RBA Holds Rates Steady

Australian Dollar Gains Strength as RBA Holds Rates Steady

Australian Dollar Gains Strength Amid RBA's Steady Rate Policy

The Australian Dollar (AUD) gains strength as traders anticipate the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintaining interest rates in April. The AUD benefits from strong economic ties with China, but uncertainty surrounding US trade policies remains a potential risk.

RBA's Rate Decision Gains Strength for Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar has strengthened as investors expect the RBA to keep rates steady in April. After the first rate cut in four years this February, the central bank remains cautious about further adjustments. Economic stability and Chinese stimulus expectations have contributed to AUD's resilience.

Despite this support, AUD/USD faces challenges. The US Dollar (USD) has gained strength following positive economic data. The S&P Global US Services PMI surged to 54.3 in March, marking a three-month high. Additionally, hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have reinforced USD demand, exerting pressure on AUD/USD.

US Economic Indicators and Their Impact on AUD/USD

The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains stable around 104.30, reflecting the Greenback’s strength. Recent US PMI data shows a rebound in business activity, particularly in the service sector. The S&P Global US Composite PMI rose to 53.5 in March, indicating solid economic performance.

While the service sector has shown strong recovery, the US Manufacturing PMI declined to 49.8, missing market expectations. This mixed economic outlook leaves investors cautious, influencing currency market trends.

Trump's Trade Policy and Market Uncertainty

Investors are closely watching US President Donald Trump's upcoming tariff announcement on April 2. Trump has suggested that "a lot" of countries could receive exemptions, but details remain unclear. This uncertainty affects risk sentiment, impacting currencies like the Australian Dollar.

Trump's proposed tariffs on China-linked vessels have also fueled concerns. Increased trade tensions could disrupt global markets, influencing the AUD/USD pair. However, recent statements suggest a possible diplomatic approach, which could ease market anxiety.

Technical Outlook: Key Levels for AUD/USD

AUD/USD is trading near 0.6290, showing a bearish bias within a descending channel. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, signaling continued downward pressure.

Key support levels:

  • 0.6220: Lower boundary of the descending channel

  • 0.6187: Seven-week low recorded on March 5

Resistance levels:

  • 0.6308: Nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

  • 0.6310: 50-day EMA

  • 0.6320: Upper boundary of the descending channel

A breakout above resistance levels could shift momentum in favor of AUD, while a break below support may lead to further losses.

Conclusion

The Australian Dollar finds support as the RBA holds rates steady, but global uncertainties pose risks. Traders should monitor upcoming US economic data and trade policy developments for potential impacts on AUD/USD movements.

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Australian Dollar Gains Strength as RBA Holds Rates Steady

The Australian Dollar gains strength as the RBA keeps interest rates steady. However, US economic data & trade policies may impact AUD/USD.

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DANIEL JOHN GRADY
Author

Daniel John Grady is a financial analyst and writer. He is a former CFO with a degree in Financial Management and has been published in both English and Spanish. With over ten years of equities trading experience, he is primarily interested in foreign exchange and emerging markets with a focus on Latin America.

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