BTC/USD Technical Analysis (1-Hour Chart): Battle at $117,000, Is the Rebound Sustainable?

Market Background and Current Price Action

As of July 16, 2025, BTC/USD (Bitcoin/US Dollar) remains in a medium-term downtrend, while attempting a short-term bottoming around the $117,000 level. In this 1-hour chart analysis, we will explore the market direction and trading strategies using multiple technical analysis indicators.

Currently, the long-term moving average continues to point downward, indicating an overall bearish tone. However, short-term price action shows some buying interest returning, and a support zone centered around $117,000 appears to be gaining attention.

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Moving Averages: At the Crossroads of Rebound and Bearish Pressure

On the chart, the short-term moving average (blue) has turned downward, while the long-term moving average (red) has flattened after a rise. The current price is slightly below both MAs, indicating a possible pullback phase following a “death cross.” The crossover of moving averages can signal a trend reversal or a shift in momentum, making this an important observation.

Notably, the current price is approaching the 200 SMA (long-term MA), and whether it can clearly break above this level is crucial to determining a shift toward an upward trend.

MACD: Initial Buy Signal?

The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) shows the MACD line crossing above the signal line from below—a potential buy signal. This suggests that MACD is indicating increasing short-term momentum.

Additionally, the histogram is breaking above the zero line, implying an attempt to escape the current downtrend. Both the MACD crossover and histogram shape are valid indicators of potential trend reversal strength.

ADX: Measuring Trend Presence and Strength

The ADX (Average Directional Index) is hovering around the 20 level, suggesting a lack of clear trend in the market. Typically, an ADX above 25 indicates a trending market, but current conditions imply a state of “calm before the trend” within a volatile range.

Given this, the current price movement may be a “rebound within a range,” making short-term trades or scalping strategies potentially more effective than trend-following approaches.

Volume and Price Action: Is the Rebound Justified?

Analyzing candlestick patterns and volume, multiple bullish candles with lower wicks have appeared around $117,000. At the same time, volume has increased at these levels, suggesting that market participants are actively buying in this zone.

Such “lower-wick rebounds with volume” are typically reliable, indicating strong short-term support. However, a break below this level could trigger stop-loss orders, increasing downside risk.

Detailed Support and Resistance Levels

Conclusion: Upcoming Scenarios and Strategies

BTC/USD is showing signs of a rebound around $117,000, and technical indicators suggest short-term upside potential. With the MACD golden cross and rising volume, multiple signals point to a possible temporary rebound phase.

However, the ADX does not yet confirm a strong trend, so traders should remain cautious. A clear breakout above $118,800 will be key for continued upward momentum, making candlestick and volume behavior at this level critical to monitor.

If the rebound fails and the price drops below $117,000 again, attention will shift to the $115,000 support level. In either case, traders should stay flexible and align their strategy with price zones and indicator behavior.

Disclaimer: This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute specific investment advice. Always make your trading decisions based on your own judgment and responsibility.

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