As of May 26, 2025, USD/JPY has clearly broken below the short-term support at 142.34 on the 1-hour chart, showing signs of a continued downtrend. Amid recent USD weakness and the Bank of Japan's monetary policy stance, we analyze the market direction from a technical perspective.
This analysis examines market turning points and momentum strength using key technical analysis indicators including moving averages, MACD, and ADX (Average Directional Index), along with volume and candlestick patterns.
Source: cTrader platform
The current price remains below both the 50-period (blue) and 200-period (red) moving averages. This signals a continuation of the medium-term downtrend, especially as the 200SMA is sloping downward, suggesting overall market weakness.
Although the price briefly rebounded to near the 50EMA, renewed selling pressure halted the rebound, confirming that moving averages are acting as resistance.
The MACD line remains below the signal line, with no signs of histogram contraction in the negative territory. This pattern indicates a continued selling trend, suggesting it's too early to consider long positions.
Of particular note is that even during recent rebounds, MACD failed to cross the zero line and reversed downward, implying that such weak bounces may present good shorting opportunities.
The ADX is hovering around 25, showing that while a trend exists, it lacks strong intensity. Comparing +DI (buying) and −DI (selling), the −DI is dominant, indicating a directional bias toward the downside.
If ADX exceeds 30 in the future, it may signal an acceleration of the downtrend.
Of note is the significant increase in volume immediately after breaking the 142.34 support line. This spike suggests that the breakout was not just noise, but rather a genuine shift in positioning among market participants.
A price drop accompanied by volume tends to be reliable, and a move toward the next support zone at 141.50 appears increasingly plausible.
| Level | Price | Significance / Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Recent Resistance | 143.20 JPY | Coincides with 50EMA, prior rebound zone |
| Medium-Term Target | 141.50 JPY | Previous support area, psychologically significant |
| Short-Term Support | 142.00 JPY | Zone where a brief rebound occurred |
| Medium-Term Support | 141.50 JPY | Previous support area, prior low |
On the USD/JPY 1-hour chart, technical indicators collectively signal bearish conditions. Weakening momentum, divergence from moving averages, sloping ADX, and increased volume at the time of the breakout all support the likelihood of a sustained downtrend.
As a short-term trading strategy, using a rebound near 143.20 as a short entry and targeting 141.50 may be effective. However, unexpected news or fundamental developments could reverse the trend, so setting a stop-loss is essential.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial product.
For other currency pairs and the latest market analysis, please visit the FIXIO Blog.
This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. The analyses and strategies mentioned are based on past data and current market conditions, and may be subject to change in the future. When making investment decisions, always conduct your own research and consult a professional if necessary.
Superior trade execution & trading conditions with the NDD method.
The online FX industry provides a platform for investors worldwide to engage in the buying and selling.
Subscribe to our daily newsletter and get the best forex trading information and markets status updates
Trade within minutes!
English
Japanese
Taiwanese
Portuguese
Hindi
English
Japanese
Taiwanese
Portuguese
Hindi
Comment (0)