Summary: USD/JPY Consolidates Within Range Amid Volatile Movement
As of April 4, 2025, the USD/JPY 1-hour chart shows price movement within a narrow range, continuing under long-term downward pressure. This article utilizes key technical indicators such as ADX, MACD, and moving averages to forecast future movements and suggest practical trading strategies.
For real-time economic data and USD/JPY fundamentals, please refer to:
Bank of Japan (BOJ) official site | U.S. Department of Labor Economic Data Release Schedule
Key Point 1: Downtrend Line Still Capping the Upside
Currently, the USD/JPY is capped by a descending trendline on the higher timeframe, with lower highs forming near the 146.50 level. Although there are attempts at short-term recovery, the overall market structure remains bearish. Low trading volume indicates a lack of participation from market players. The ongoing movement within the 145.50–146.50 range reflects temporary consolidation, but unless the trendline is broken, the market is expected to remain in favor of sellers.
Image source: cTrader platform
Key Point 2: ADX Suggests Increasing Trend Strength
The ADX (Average Directional Index) is rising and approaching the 40 level, typically a sign of an impending strong price movement—either a breakout or breakdown. A break above 146.50 could signal a reversal, while a drop below 145.30 may accelerate the downtrend.
Key Point 3: MACD May Indicate a Bullish Crossover
The MACD histogram is just below the zero line, and the MACD and signal lines are gradually converging. A short-term bullish crossover may occur, potentially pushing prices toward the upper end of the range. However, unless a clear break above 146.50 occurs, such movements should be considered counter-trend (temporary rebounds).
Outlook and Trading Strategy: Watching for a Breakout
USD/JPY is at a critical juncture. Watch the following points to inform trading decisions:
Whether MACD crosses above the zero line
Whether ADX breaks above 40 and volume increases
Price action near the 146.50 resistance or 145.30 support
Trade Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario (Rebound Play)
Entry: Around 145.70–145.80
Take Profit: Above 146.40
Stop Loss: Below 145.30
Bearish Scenario (Breakout Play)
Entry: Below 145.30
Take Profit: 144.80
Stop Loss: Above 145.80
Note: These strategies are for educational purposes only. Please prioritize your own risk management and judgment in actual trading.
Conclusion: Breakout or Pullback—A Crucial Phase
While the current technical setup favors a bearish outlook, MACD and volume movement hint at a potential rebound. The next few hours to 1–2 days will likely be critical in determining the direction. Be flexible with your strategy and always prioritize risk management.
Disclaimer
This content is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research and make decisions independently.
Check FIXIO’s blog for the latest updates.
This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. The analyses and strategies mentioned are based on past data and current market conditions, and may be subject to change in the future. When making investment decisions, always conduct your own research and consult a professional if necessary.
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