Pullback Over? TRX Enters Reversal Mode — Is Now the Time to Buy?

TRX/USD Analysis – Pullback After Rally: Is a New Climb Coming?

Overview (May 21st, 2025)

TRX/USD (Tron / US Dollar) surged from around $0.258 to $0.268 between May 20 and early May 21. After this strong upward movement, the pair faced some profit-taking, leading to a temporary dip. However, it appears to be stabilizing around $0.261. While technical indicators show the uptrend has paused, price stability above the moving averages, a still-high ADX, and signs of MACD reversal all suggest a possible resumption of upward momentum.

Key Point 1: Moving Averages Providing Support

TRX/USD remains above both the 50-hour (blue) and 200-hour (red) moving averages, indicating that the bullish structure remains intact. Even with recent pullbacks, the price has not tested the 200MA, and the 50MA continues to act as a support zone. This may indicate a consolidation phase before another leg up.

Key Point 2: ADX Indicates Trend Continuation

The ADX (yellow line) is holding at a high level between 50 and 60, which typically suggests a strong, ongoing trend. The +DI (green line) continues to sit well above the −DI (red line), confirming that buying momentum remains dominant. As long as ADX stays elevated, the uptrend is assumed to continue.

Key Point 3: MACD Showing Signs of Reversal

The MACD (red line) recently dipped below the signal line (yellow line), signaling a short-term bearish shift. However, the lines are now flattening, and the histogram in the negative territory is narrowing. This setup could be the beginning of a bullish crossover, which may accelerate price momentum upward again.

Key Point 4: Volume Dynamics Reflecting Market Sentiment

Volume has decreased slightly during the pullback, but the initial breakout was accompanied by a noticeable volume spike, indicating solid market interest. If volume picks up again during upward price movement, it could validate the next leg of the trend.

※ Image source: cTrader platform

Outlook & Trading Strategy

TRX/USD traders should watch the following technical levels and indicators to plan the next move:

• Support Zone: $0.258 – $0.260 – If the price holds here, a bullish rebound becomes more likely.
• Upside Target: $0.268 – $0.272 – A breakout above recent highs could confirm trend continuation.
• MACD Crossover: A bullish crossover would signal a new buying opportunity.

Trade Scenarios

Bullish Scenario (Rebound Play)
Entry: Long near $0.260 after confirming a price floor
Target: $0.268 – $0.270
Stop Loss: Below $0.257

Bearish Scenario (Failed Rebound)
Entry: Short near $0.268 if strong resistance is confirmed
Target: $0.260
Stop Loss: Above $0.271

Summary:

TRX/USD is in a consolidation phase following a recent rally, but the overall structure remains bullish. The high ADX, potential MACD reversal, and support from moving averages all suggest a possible continuation of the upward trend. Traders should closely monitor MACD behavior and volume dynamics to confirm trend direction, while keeping risk management in place.

Disclaimer:

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All trading decisions are your own responsibility.
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