As of May 29, 2025, EUR/USD has clearly broken below the key 1.1300 support level on the 1-hour chart and continues consolidating around 1.1270. This highlights short-term bearish dominance and growing attention on further downside potential. In this analysis, we explore the market outlook and strategy using technical analysis tools such as moving averages, MACD, RSI, and volume.
The short-term moving average (50EMA) is clearly below the long-term moving average (200SMA), and the gap between them is widening. This setup, known as a "death cross," is considered a strong bearish signal in moving average analysis. With the price moving below both MAs, the current downtrend appears persistent, potentially signaling a trend reversal.
The MACD line is below the signal line, and the histogram continues to expand in negative territory. This confirms ongoing bearish momentum, indicating that any recovery may be short-lived. A MACD well below the zero line often suggests a medium-term correction. MACD crossovers or narrowing histograms can offer future trading signals.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slightly rebounded above 30, showing a temporary bounce from the "oversold" zone. However, unless it clearly breaks above the 50 level, a trend reversal remains uncertain. RSI is a type of momentum indicator, and its current weak stance suggests that buying pressure may be limited.
A noticeable spike in volume occurred as EUR/USD broke below 1.1300, confirming the validity of the breakout. Price movements accompanied by volume are often considered evidence of a true breakout and may indicate additional downside risk. Particularly at key levels, rising volume suggests the involvement of institutional players, making this a critical signal.
| Level | Price | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Short-Term Resistance | 1.1300 | Former support, now potential selling zone on rebounds |
| Next Target | 1.1200 | Psychological level with past bounce history |
| Short-Term Support | 1.1250 | Recent lower wick bounce, short-term retracement zone |
| Medium-Term Support | 1.1180 | Support zone recognized in early May |
From a technical perspective, EUR/USD appears favorable for a sell-on-rally strategy. A retracement toward 1.1300–1.1320 could become a key selling opportunity. In the short term, the downside target is 1.1200, and if breached, 1.1180 may act as a medium-term support level.
The break below 1.1300 suggests EUR/USD has entered a bearish trend, with all major indicators—MACD, RSI, and moving averages—signaling downside momentum. While rebounds toward levels like 1.1250 or 1.1200 may occur, traders should remain cautious of further declines. A flexible trading approach that incorporates both technical levels and fundamental factors is essential.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All trading decisions should be made at your own discretion and risk.
This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. The analyses and strategies mentioned are based on past data and current market conditions, and may be subject to change in the future. When making investment decisions, always conduct your own research and consult a professional if necessary.
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